What happens when patience runs out and the scoreboard still isn’t tilting your way? That’s the uncomfortable question circling Starkville right now. Jeff Lebby’s name technically didn’t show up on CBS Sports’ infamous hot seat watch list. Yet, if you read between the fine lines and listen closely to the voices around the SEC, you’ll hear the warning getting louder. 

CBS Sports’ Brandon Marcello set the alarm this week dropping the fact that no SEC HCs got fired or stepped down last season. “We’ve set ourselves up for a massive exodus, mass firings in the SEC this year,” he said. “I could see as many as five SEC coaches getting the boot by the end of this season.” Yes, the SEC could flip the switch like it’s cleaning house. And while Marcello didn’t list Jeff Lebby as one of the five names, another analyst made sure his name didn’t escape the conversation. So why the heat on the Mississippi State HC?

On The Next Round on August 1, Jim Dunaway revealed why he thinks Jeff Lebby could end up with a hot seat with a psychological factor. “Here’s why I put Jeff Lebby on this list. And it’s it’s a very psychological mental thing,” he said. “Dan Mullen is back in coaching again.” Dan Mullen, the guy who coached the Bulldogs from 2009-17 to a 69-46 record, who led the team to eight straight bowl seasons, and even went No. 1 in 2014, is back. Only this time, he’s at UNLV, a team projected to win and go second only after Boise State. “I think Mississippi State fans will loosely watch. They won’t be tuned into every UNLV game, but they’ll be aware that dang, Dan Mullen’s winning,” the host added. And what does that mean for their current HC? Bad might just be the projection. 

As Jim Dunaway predicts, Mississippi State fans will reminisce the good old days when Dan Mullen was around. And they’ll think, “Dan Mullen won’t come back, but we can be that again.” How so? “And if it goes as bad as it did last year, if they go over the SEC, which is the projection,” the analyst added. “I could see them saying, ‘Let’s let’s try someone else.’” In Year 1 under Jeff Lebby, Mississippi State was 2-10 flat, with an 0-8 wipeout in the SEC. That’s a restart on hard mode. And their 2025 schedule is even tougher. 

The Bulldogs draw Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, and Ole Miss, plus an opening trip to Southern Miss that has “trap” written all over it. But Jeff Lebby seems to be ready for the gauntlet. “For me and our guys, we understand what the gauntlet looks like,” he said during SEC Media Days. “That’s exciting. What a great challenge, what a great opportunity. Our guys will be excited to go chase it.” But when your last title in the conference (1941) feels like a distant rumor, words can only do so much. And if anything goes south early on, his name will get as loud as the following HCs on the list. 

The 5 SEC HCs who could get fired in 2025

Let’s talk about the five names actually on the CBS Sports’ firing list. Brian Kelly’s got questions swirling in Baton Rouge. Ten wins used to buy you peace. Now, it might not even buy you silence. If he misses the Playoff again, LSU could be looking elsewhere for its next national-title shot-caller. Meanwhile, Billy Napier is hanging by DJ Lagway’s cleats. With his star QB battling injuries and a brutal schedule that includes LSU, Miami, and Texas, even CBS’s Shehan Jeyarajah has him near the top of the hot-seat chart.

Sam Pittman may have escaped last year’s fire, but 2025 throws Notre Dame, Texas, and LSU his way. Arkansas better hope their late-season magic wasn’t a one-time show. Hugh Freeze, meanwhile, is 11-14 at Auburn. That doesn’t cut in a place that fired Gene Chizik two years after a national title. As for Mark Stoops, his Kentucky squad has been wandering since Will Levis left. With Zach Calzada under center and recruiting momentum fading, the Wildcats might be preparing a clean break.

If you add it up, these five HCs make up one-third of the SEC’s total of 16. All skating on cracked ice. There’s also growing alarm on Oklahoma’s Brent Venables who’s trying to flip the script with a revamped offense. As for Mississippi State, if Jeff Lebby doesn’t change the narrative soon, Starkville could be next on the chopping block.