Figuring out the balance of power in CFB is never simple, especially in mid-September. Who’s truly elite? Who’s struggling but will peak in November? And who looks unstoppable now but will hit a wall later in the season? That uncertainty is what makes upset alerts so thrilling. The world of college football is in flux with the explosion of NIL. Every week, any team can show up and cause an upset.

On September 11, Josh Pate appeared on his CFB show and broke down Alabama’s Week 3 matchup. He highlighted the big point spread, stating, “Alabama’s favored by 20 and a half against Wisconsin. Wisconsin has announced they’re starting Danny O’Neil at quarterback. That’s the backup there. He has starting experience.” Although Pate didn’t see a major upset looming but gave the favorite a measured concern rating: “I’m putting a three and a half on it on the upset alert concern meter.” Here, he noted the game could reveal early indicators for bigger tests ahead: “Do we see indications of things to come against Georgia, Missouri, Tennessee, LSU, etc.?” Then, Pate also flagged Alabama’s offensive line as key, citing last week’s struggles against FSU’s speed and aggression, saying, “They got worked in Week One. Can’t let that happen again.” But Pate’s upset alert predictions didn’t stop there.

We know Vanderbilt heads to South Carolina this weekend, and Josh Pate isn’t entirely confident in the Gamecocks. Although South Carolina is favored by 4.5 points at home, Pate flagged some offensive concerns, saying, “I just don’t know that South Carolina is doing enough offensively to warrant me trusting them… that wide receiver production you guys promised me, that hasn’t shown itself yet.” On the other hand, he noted Vanderbilt’s big offensive line and last week’s strong showing against Virginia Tech. Vandy outgained them by 300 yards in the second half. Given that, Pate sees this as a real test for South Carolina.

“Maybe that’s what brings a win home for South Carolina. But I’m worried about it. I’m putting a 10 on it. I’m worried about it.” He even predicts a potential upset, stating, “Some would go as far as to say I’m predicting Vandy to win the game outright. And I am. Not a ton of conviction, I’m not betting it, but I am worried about it for South Carolina.” After this, Pate moved on to the Trojans.

USC travels to Purdue this weekend, and Josh Pate isn’t taking the matchup lightly. He acknowledged the Trojans’ defensive struggles early in the season but said they’ve looked solid so far: “They’re okay defensively. Maybe still some things to iron out and prove, but so far, so good.” So, the challenge, he notes, is the travel: “I don’t think anyone’s really nailed how to travel west to east except for Oregon. USC struggled with this last year.” Here, the national analyst views the game as a test of character.

“This is a competitive character game for USC… What would have to happen here is USC goes in there and looks lethargic, and they sleepwalk.” Then he gave the upset alert a moderate rating: “I’m going to put a five on it only because they haven’t proven to me that they have the competitive maturity to just go handle business.” So, even as favorites, the Trojans can’t take Purdue lightly. Now, while the upset alerts for two SEC teams and one Big Ten team seem set, more CFB underdog surprises are on the way.

Other analysts weigh in on Week 3 games

Arkansas comes in as a +7 underdog at Ole Miss, and the Razorbacks could be dangerous. Ole Miss survived a sluggish seven-point win over Kentucky on Saturday. And Kewan Lacy’s big day on the ground helped cover for QB Austin Simmons’ rough outing which included 2 interceptions. Following that, Kentucky couldn’t capitalize, but Arkansas presents a tougher challenge. “If the Rebels keep turning the ball over, the Hogs will make them pay,” said Tyler Nettuno. So, Ole Miss needs a cleaner offensive day to stay in control, or Arkansas could turn this into a serious upset threat. The underdog train doesn’t stop there.

Colorado comes in as a +4.5 underdog at Houston. But the Buffs have momentum. After a close loss to Georgia Tech, they dominated Delaware, scoring 21 unanswered points once third-string QB Ryan Staub took over. Now, Staub will start the Big 12 opener, giving Colorado confidence. Meanwhile, even thoughHouston looks solid under former five-star Conner Weigman, but they remain unproven against bigger competition. “Will the Cougs knock off the Buffs, or will they lose their fourth straight Big 12 game dating back to last November?” asked Patrick Conn.

West Virginia enters as a +7.5 underdog against Pitt in the 108th Backyard Brawl, a rivalry that never loses its bite. “Yes, they lost to Ohio last week, but toss aside records, this game has hate,” said Riley Donald. Since the rivalry’s revival in 2022, the Mountaineers have covered 7.5 points every time. Now, history suggests they’ll keep it close, and if they hang around late, an upset is very much in play. Week 3 is turning out to be an exciting one for the 2025 season.