This season, even 5-7 teams are getting a shot at bowl glory. Thanks to the NCAA, squads with five wins can secure at least two and possibly up to five bowl bids, depending on their Academic Progress Rate (APR). Here, On3 Sports’ Brett McMurphy listed the teams that could play in bowl games, depending on particular “if” factors.

“If Kansas State opts out of bowl, the 5-7 teams, based on 2020-24 multi-year APR rankings, an NCAA source told @On3sports, is in order Rice, Auburn, UCF, Miss St & Florida St.,” wrote McMurphy on Thursday. “These rankings aren’t publicly available.”

It’s a rare chance for underdogs to crash the party. As not enough teams hit traditional bowl eligibility (six wins) this season, the football oversight committee decided that 5-win teams will fill the gaps with 41 bowls on the slate. Now, with 80 teams officially bowl-eligible, the APR rankings step in to determine the teams one win away from bowl eligibility.

Based on the 2020–24 cycle, Rice leads with an APR of 987, followed closely by Auburn at 986. UCF and Mississippi State sit at 985, while FSU comes in at 983. Here’s Rice having a real shot this season if Kansas State withdraws, since the Wildcats own an APR score of 990.

But the path now seems clear, as Kansas State has reportedly opted out of its bowl game.

After their head coach, Chris Klieman, stepped down at the end of the regular season, the Wildcats put the choice in the players’ hands. But the vote was clear that they wanted to skip a bowl game altogether. The players’ vote to skip a bowl game altogether was a stunning twist to a season that spiraled fast. This is the same K-State team that opened the year as a conference favorite, only to limp to a 6–6 finish.

A relevant parallel occurred during the 2021 season, when Rutgers was selected to play in the Gator Bowl as a replacement for Texas A&M. The Aggies had to withdraw from the bowl due to a combination of COVID-19 issues and player injuries within their program, resulting in the bowl lacking a participant.

Notably, Rutgers was chosen because it had the highest Academic Progress Rate (APR) among all the available 5-7 teams. This is because of the NCAA’s rule for determining which teams qualify for bowl games when there are not enough winning teams.

Despite that, the Kansas State AD has already found its new head coach for next season.

Kansas State’s head coach for the 2026 season

On Thursday, Kansas State officially named current Texas A&M offensive coordinator Collin Klein as its next head coach. While Klein steps in for the retiring Kleiman, his contract is a five-year deal worth $4.3 million annually.

While it feels like the perfect homecoming, AD Gene Taylor praised Klein’s leadership and deep investment in his players, noting that the same fire that made him a legend still burns in him as a coach.

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“Collin is a tremendous leader who cares deeply about his players. The grit, toughness, and aggression he displayed as a player still fuels him today as a coach, and he is determined to carry on the tremendous success this program has achieved,” said Taylor.

Klein’s legacy at Kansas State already sits in rare air.

As a Heisman finalist in 2012, he led the Wildcats to a Big 12 title and a Fiesta Bowl appearance. He later returned as QBs coach and offensive coordinator, giving him a full-circle resume.

Now, Klein becomes only the second alum ever to take the reins as head coach. We’ll now see where the program goes with its iconic leader back in charge.