Lately, the transfer portal resembles speed dating. Players commit, enroll, sample the system, and if it doesn’t click, they hit the portal again and move on. Take the case of the Michigan QB who committed in January and was gone before spring football. That’s the problem the NCAA is now trying to slam the brakes on with an aggressive penalty. 

On April 1, the NCAA Division I Cabinet pushed forward emergency legislation aimed at “blind transfers.” These refer to those players moving outside the January portal window after already enrolling. As 247Sports’ Matt Zenitz shared, teams that add such players will be severely punished according to new penalties the D1 cabinet approved today.

“On Wednesday, the Division I Cabinet adopted a proposal that penalizes programs that sign a transfer student-athlete, add a transfer student-athlete to a roster, or allow a transfer student-athlete to participate in athletically related activities before the student-athlete is entered into the NCAA Transfer Portal,” the statement read. “Penalties which are automatically triggered – include a suspension of the respective sport’s head coach for 50% of a season and a fine of 20% of that sport’s budget.”

As harsh as it sounds, the question is: will anyone actually believe it until someone bears the brunt of it? But the issue is following a growing pattern, with the most recent one being QB Colin Hurley, a former 4-star recruit who reclassified early, battled injuries, transferred from LSU, and landed at Michigan on January 13. At that time, it looked like a low-risk, high-upside depth move for the Wolverines’ QB room that needed bodies. Fast forward three months into spring practice, and he’s gone. 

For months, coaches have been raising this concern. If one player can do it, what happens if 15 others walk the same path? One Big Ten GM said it would be a “horrible look,” especially after how much attention similar cases have already drawn. Remember Xavier Lucas, who was denied portal entry by Wisconsin. He simply unenrolled and took his talents to Miami, which played him anyway. The result was a playoff run and a national title appearance. There were no real consequences for that, no precedent that scared anyone.

And if that wasn’t enough, there was BYU QB drama, too. Jake Retzlaff’s suspension forced a workaround, and suddenly Tulane had a starting QB leading them to the playoffs. Again, there was no meaningful recourse. So, the NCAA is finally stepping in, but not everyone’s convinced it matters.

Will this NCAA rule hold up?

Some coaches, GMs, and attorneys around the sport only see legal chaos on the horizon. One AAC head coach feels that this might keep rosters intact until the first lawsuit hits. And there are already too many instances where the NCAA lost legal battles to college athletes. Ever since the fallout of the House v. NCAA settlement, players have been chipping away at restrictions left and right. 

From eligibility rules to transfer rules, everything is being challenged. So, it’s not hard to see where this could lead. Attorney Darren Heitner, who represented Xavier Lucas, already believes more cases are inevitable if enforcement actually begins. 

“There’s no way in hell any of this s— holds up,” one SEC head coach bluntly said. “If a kid gets kicked off a team, he can’t join another team?”

That’s going to lead to an inevitable legal battle. Still, there are believers, too. Some coaches think the sheer severity of the penalties might be enough to scare programs into compliance. 

“If they actually do it to somebody who violates it, absolutely, it’ll work,” one ACC head coach commented. 

But that “if” is doing a lot of heavy lifting because right now, skepticism runs deep. Years of inconsistent enforcement have conditioned programs to think the NCAA will go after smaller schools while blue-bloods skate by. And without the manpower for constant audits, as one SEC GM pointed out, policing this system is easier said than done.