Tennessee thought it had closure with Arion Carter. On December 12, Josh Heupel’s veteran LB announced he was declaring for the 2026 NFL Draft and opting out of the Music City Bowl. He was initially projected as an early-to-mid round prospect. For the Vols, it felt like business as usual, but that assumption did not survive January as the story pivoted abruptly. 

“BREAKING: Tennessee LB Arion Carter plans to withdraw from the NFL Draft and enter the NCAA Transfer Portal, @SWiltfong_ reports,” On3 shared on X on January 16. 

Arion Carter, who had already notified Josh Heupel, LB coach William Inge, and AD Danny White of his earlier decision, reversed course and chose another path. It was a return to college football but not to Knoxville.

Arion Carter’s reasoning was direct and detailed, and it reframed his entire 2025 season. He cited academics first, noting he is only a few credit hours away from graduating and would become the first in his family to earn a degree. He also addressed the football reality he played through, explaining that turf toe limited him throughout the year and prevented him from performing to his own standard.

“Being able to come back and have a full year of training and sharpening my tools and being a better linebacker and setting out to do everything I want to accomplish this next year,” he said. 

That explanation answered the “why,” but it opened a more complicated “what’s next.” The immediate assumption is that Arion Carter remains in the SEC. He said as much himself, stating a preference to stay in the league while keeping his options open nationally. 

“I would love to stay in the SEC,” he said. “But I’m willing to go anywhere.”

Timing amplifies his leverage. January 16 marks the final day of the first condensed 15-day winter transfer portal window. More than 3,200 FBS scholarship players entered before the deadline, and while no new names can be added after 11:59 p.m. local time, movement is far from finished. Players already in the portal can still visit, communicate, and commit on their own schedules. Arion Carter enters that market as one of the most proven defensive pieces available.

Programs like Alabama and Texas A&M immediately loom. The Tide’s interest is not new. They heavily recruited Arion Carter out of Smyrna High School in the 2023 class, hosting him multiple times before he chose Tennessee in December 2022. Reports at the time indicated Tennessee’s emphasis on making Carter a priority helped seal the commitment. That decision anchored his early career, but it no longer binds his future.

On the field, Arion Carter is coming off back-to-back strong seasons in Knoxville. In 2025, despite foot injuries, he played 10 games with nine starts, totaling 76 tackles, six tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, two QB hurries, two pass breakups, a forced fumble, and a recovery. After missing part of his freshman year in 2023 with a shoulder injury, he rebounded with a breakout 2024 season on a top-10 defense, recording 68 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss, and an interception. Over three seasons, he appeared in 31 games with 22 starts. 

At 6’1 and 235 pounds, the former 4-star prospect remains an NFL-caliber LB who simply chose to reset the timeline, a decision which leads directly into Tennessee’s broader portal reality. While Arion Carter’s decision reshapes the LB market, it also sharpens focus on a separate issue that Josh Heupel is facing in Knoxville.

Josh Heupel’s ongoing QB dilemma

Tennessee is still competing on the defensive side, recently landing Michigan safety TJ Metcalf. But Josh Heupel’s struggles to land a transfer QB have become one of the most puzzling trends of this portal cycle. This is a proven QB developer leading an SEC program with national reach and recent offensive success. Yet the Vols continue to miss at the position. 

Brendan Sorsby went from Cincinnati to Texas Tech despite public interest in Tennessee. Ty Simpson opted for the NFL Draft despite reported interest and aggressive NIL overtures. Sam Leavitt chose Ole Miss, where Lane Kiffin also secured Landen Clark from Elon, while Beau Pribula landed at Virginia, and Devon Dampier stayed at Utah. As the Vols approach a pivotal sixth season under Josh Heupel, their QB room is defined by youth after Joey Aguilar’s fate. 5-star freshman Faizon Brandon and redshirt freshman George MacIntyre represent potential, not certainty. 

Josh Heupel’s interest in portal QBs underscores the staff’s awareness of the gap, yet most viable options are gone. Arion Carter’s departure does not create that problem, but its timing underscores the volatility of Tennessee’s roster management reality. The portal keeps moving, and Tennessee keeps reacting. But the questions are only getting louder.

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