Arch Manning entered the 2026 season with Heisman expectations and could become a potential No. 1 overall pick. Eight games later, that conversation has taken a different turn. Todd McShay isn’t convinced the Texas QB should be anywhere near the NFL just yet. In fact, the longtime NFL Draft analyst believes another season of college football would do him considerably more good than declaring for the 2027 draft.

Todd McShay made his position clear during an appearance on The Triple Option. His recommendation wasn’t just to stay in Austin and try again. He has another destination in mind.

“Arch isn’t ready,” he said. “Arch should come back to college for another year. I would love to see him with, and I’ve said this before, but with Will Stein in Kentucky. You know, everyone’s saying, well, maybe it’s Georgia, maybe it’s Ole Miss. We’ll see what happens.”

Rather than spending another year under Steve Sarkisian, Todd McShay would like to see Arch Manning work with Kentucky’s new head coach, who previously served as Oregon’s OC. Mark Ingram then asked whether there was any chance the QB would return to Texas. The analyst didn’t rule it out. 

“I’m not saying there’s no shot,” he said. “I would like to see him in a different system from, selfishly, from an evaluation standpoint. And I think it might be good for him too.”

But he also offered an important distinction that could easily get lost in the discussion.

“I do want to remind people, like, I’m talking to NFL guys all the time,” he added. “If Arch comes out, he’s going to be a first-round pick, even though he’s not ready.”

In other words, Arch Manning’s NFL appeal hasn’t disappeared. His readiness is another matter. That’s an important difference, especially with a surname that has kept him under the spotlight since long before he became Texas’ starting QB.

Texas hasn’t made life easy for Arch Manning either. The Longhorns opened the campaign looking like a national championship contender and climbed to No. 1 during the opening stretch. Then came consecutive defeats against Oklahoma and Florida.

The second loss was particularly uncomfortable. Following the 27-24 defeat against the Gators on October 17, Steve Sarkisian was asked whether he had considered making a QB change.

“Everything is going to be evaluated,” he said.

When pressed on whether that included the starting QB, he offered an even shorter response.

“Everything means everything,” he said. 

Through eight games, Arch Manning had thrown seven interceptions, matching his total from the previous season. His sack numbers had also climbed. Texas has surrendered 20 sacks in its first five SEC games this season. That’s the same number it allowed across the conference schedule last year.

Steve Sarkisian hasn’t hidden his frustration. After Arch Manning was sacked five times against Mississippi State, the coach admitted the offensive line’s performance was unacceptable.

“The five sacks sucks, that’s not something we’re proud of,” he said. “I don’t want [Arch Manning] to have to endure that.”

There are signs that Arch Manning can still turn things around. Against Mississippi State, he completed 16 of 20 passes for 220 yards and three touchdowns in Texas’ 31-3 victory with no interceptions. 

Texas remains No. 7 and has important tests ahead against No. 19 Missouri and No. 15 LSU. The playoff picture is far from settled, and Arch Manning still has time to change the narrative surrounding his season.

That makes Todd McShay’s Kentucky idea an interesting conversation rather than an immediate possibility. Arch Manning has unfinished business at Texas, and a strong finish could make the transfer discussion irrelevant.