Arch Manning was supposed to be a first-round pick. That was the preseason narrative. But with half the season in the books, especially after the two-game losing streak, NFL scouts seem to have given up on Manning. They have shifted focus to another name. And surprisingly, it’s not one of the other prospects who entered the season with sky-high draft expectations.
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ESPN recently conducted a mid-season poll of 25 scouts and executives about the leading quarterback prospect for next year’s NFL draft. Drew Mestemaker, who is earning $3.5 million this year as part of his two-year NIL deal with Oklahoma State, emerged as the overwhelming favorite.
17 out of those 25 voters named him their top choice, while every other contender finished in single digits. Mestemaker’s Oklahoma State team competes in the same Big 12 conference as Manning’s Texas Longhorns.
That is the most votes any quarterback has received in the poll’s three-year history. The scale of Mestemaker’s support is as remarkable as his rise to the top of the draft conversation. In the preseason, Mestemaker received zero votes.
The sentiment among scouts was hard to ignore, with one saying: “Mestemaker seems like the only real choice at this point.”
The next-best totals went to CJ Carr (four) and Darian Mensah (three), and only one scout picked Dante Moore. Back in the preseason, the picture was reversed: Moore was the clear favorite at 14 votes, followed by Manning at seven, Sellers at two, and one apiece for Leavitt and Carr.
One scout said this quarterback class looked capable of matching 1983, the legendary draft in which quarterbacks went in the first round in bunches, before the season began. A lot has changed since then, he said, and Manning has dropped down the board, so it will be worth watching which names rise to take his place.
Scouts also point to his dual-threat ability. Against Oregon on September 12, he threw for 317 yards and two touchdowns as Oklahoma State secured a 39-31 upset as a nearly three-touchdown underdog. He also ran for 75 yards, showcasing his athleticism while outplaying Moore.
Mestemaker did not start on his high school varsity team, and he began his college career as a walk-on at North Texas. His rise to becoming a North Texas walk-on makes for an unconventional quarterback prospect story. Additionally, scouts also like his size.
“The size, the body type and arm strength are the things that stood out to me right away,” a veteran scout said. “He’s got arm talent, power and accuracy.”
Scouts may wonder about his late start, but a projected 27 career starts by the end of 2026 gives evaluators plenty to work with. All signs point to him entering the draft after the season.
Manning, by contrast, has not won over scouts to the same degree. In the October polls, he got zero votes. The Texas Longhorns quarterback faces growing scrutiny over his performances, particularly his accuracy and turnover issues.