Josh Heupel’s 19th-ranked Tennessee is set to face a 14th-ranked in-state rival, Vanderbilt, at Neyland Stadium. The team must win the matchup to keep its playoff hopes alive, while a win for Vandy may get it a spot in the playoffs if some other games go its way. Vandy QB1 Diego Pavia will then come full throttle and is expected to exploit Tennessee’s middling defense, according to Nick Saban.

Nick Saban sat alongside Pat McAfee and other College GameDay hosts before the UM vs. OSU game and talked about why Diego Pavia can exploit Vandy’s defense.

“He’s going to have a great opportunity because Tennessee’s defense has actually given up over 30 points per game against every SEC opponent. And Diego usually takes advantage of those situations. So that won’t surprise me,” said the Alabama legend.

Tennessee’s defense under defensive coordinator Tim Banks entered the season with high expectations. The Vols had players like Joshua Josephs and Jeremiah Telander returning, and preseason PFF projections had Tennessee touted as one of the top 10 defenses. But now, Tennessee is 8-3 in the season, and the Vols rank 74th in total defense. Not to mention, Josh Heupel is 85th in scoring defense, giving away 27.3 points per game. Crucial aspects, such as tackling, are simply worse when compared to the 2024 season.

“It’s a point of emphasis because the last couple of weeks, our tackling has been terrible. We have been focusing on it a lot. We do tackling drills, but at the end of the day, you gotta put your head on somebody and make the tackle,” said Vols defensive lineman Dominic Bailey.

The majority of the tackling woes have come from the secondary, and the team has shown no signs of improvement as the season progressed. The back end, in particular, is torched in games, and the team has allowed 23 passing touchdowns so far, ranking 120th in the country. Not to mention, the Vols have simply allowed too many rushing plays, as their rushing defense is ranked 41st nationally. That’s completely in contrast to 2024, when Tennessee was 10th nationally in run defense. Owing to the dynamics, Diego Pavia is expected to have a field day against the Vols.

Diego Pavia to exploit Tennessee’s defensive weakness

Diego Pavia has been a lifesaver for the Commodores since his arrival. This year, the QB has led Vanderbilt to a 9-2 season, and a win can take his team to a first-ever playoff. In total, the QB has 2,924 passing yards to his name at 71.8% efficiency and has rushed for 661 yards this year. The QB is extremely prolific with his passing and is 6th nationally in passing touchdowns. Not to mention, Pavia’s elusiveness on the ground won’t make life easy for the Vols’ defense. That’s the reason McAfee even pitched Pavia for the Heisman.

“I think his going to New York seems to make sense, especially with everything he’s done for that entire institution in the city of Nashville and Vanderbilt. He’s averaged 476 total yards, has had 14 touchdowns. No turnovers. That is the story of Diego Pavia. He gets a massive win here over a top-ranked Tennessee team in this rivalry historically dominated by Tennessee,” said Pat McAfee.

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All in all, we have seen the Vols folding late, something they did against teams like Georgia. So far, the team has allowed 17.4 points in the fourth quarter in the SEC and ranks 111th in red zone defense. Expect Diego Pavia to rush at least one touchdown in the endzone and showcase the passing prowess of 300+ yards after a 484-yard showing against Kentucky. Will Pavia then bolster his case for a Heisman after a win over Tennessee?