Nick Saban may have had Caleb Downs for just one season but he seems to know how the story ends. Back in 2023, the former Alabama head coach didn’t even wait for the safety to become a star before forming that opinion. He saw the freshman upside immediately once upon a time in Tuscaloosa. Now, just a day before the 2026 NFL draft, he’s laying down his opinion. 

“Caleb Downs made more players that plays in college than anybody in the draft,” Nick Saban said on The Pat McAfee Show on April 22. “So if he makes that many plays in the NFL, what’s the capability gap? How much better can he get?… I would say that when he played for us as a freshman, he would have been the first safety taken in the draft.”

Go back to Alabama’s 2023 season and you’ll see where Nick Saban’s thoughts are coming from. That season wasn’t supposed to belong to a first-year safety. But Caleb Downs walked in and racked up 107 tackles, two picks, and a forced fumble that earned him the SEC Freshman of the Year honors. As the head coach then, he was already sold.

“The guy is so instinctive,” Saban said. “He’s got really good ability. He is a phenomenal person and he is a football junkie and he is just so instinctive on the field and such a fast reactor. Now he plays better. Everybody’s questions, whether he can play in a deep part of the field, he can play in a deep part of the field, but when he’s in a deep part of the field and he comes downhill, he’s going to bust your a–”

That’s the version of Caleb Downs offenses have been trying to account for ever since. But for all the glowing endorsement, Nick Saban had one small critique which is almost funny that cracked up the ESPN hosts. 

“The only negative I would say to him, and I talked to him on the phone the other day, and it was the same thing when he played for us,” he added. “He tries to butt him to the ground. He hits him so hard. I said, ‘how about trying to wrap them up?’”

It’s the kind of negative NFL teams will happily live with. Caleb Downs didn’t quite match the raw tackle volume when he transferred to Ohio State for the 2024 season. But his game evolved with more impact plays where he ultimately became a national champion. He also has two unanimous All-American honors, a Jim Thorpe Award, and earned Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year. 

So what’s holding NFL teams back? For all the production and all the Nick Saban-backed credibility, Caleb Downs plays a position that NFL teams historically hesitate to prioritize early.

Caleb Downs is gaining increased interest from the Giants

According to Jeremy Fowler, multiple teams believe Caleb Downs might be the best overall player in the entire class. But as Matt Miller points out, being elite at a “non-premium” position can be a weird kind of disadvantage on draft night. Safeties don’t always go top five, they don’t even go top ten sometimes. But that’s why the $10.1 billion franchise has a rare edge. 

The New York Giants are in a rare position with two top-10 picks. Picking Caleb Downs at No. 10 could flip a defense overnight, especially for a unit that has underperformed despite having talent. Again, there’s buzz that he’s in play even earlier, maybe as high as No. 5 because what they need is a tone-setter.

The Giants already have solid safeties but this is about changing the identity of the defense. Caleb Downs himself didn’t shy away from that expectation.

“You’re getting somebody to come in and be a change agent,” he said this week. “To make an impact on the field, off the field, in your community, in your building. And then probably the best ball player on the field. That’s what you’re getting.”

So now we wait because when the draft happens tomorrow night, this won’t be about whether Caleb Downs is good enough. It’ll be about which team is bold enough to believe it first.