Ohio State safety Caleb Downs has long been viewed as the top NFL pick in the 2026 draft. He’s believed to be a can’t-miss prospect who’s destined for first-round glory. However, not everyone is sold on Downs just yet, as veteran draft analyst Eric Edholm offered a sobering dose of reality, suggesting that the New York Jets could pass on Downs.

According to Eric Edholm’s 2026 NFL mock draft, the Jets’ first-round picks would be OSU’s linebacker Arvell Reese and Arizona State’s wide receiver Jordyn Tyson, and not Caleb Downs. He believes the Jets, who are projected to get the No. 2 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, can’t afford two defensive stars in the first round. Tyson could come in and offer the Jets some offensive power, which is what they’re looking for.

“The Jets probably can’t afford to get out of Round 1 without some offensive firepower, and Tyson brings it,” Edholm wrote. “He’s a splash-play machine and a deep threat, although his injury history could be a limiting factor.”

At the moment, the Las Vegas Raiders own the No. 1 overall pick, and the New York Jets fall just behind, having the second spot. If the Jets are looking to land the first pick, they’d have to trade with the Raiders. However, the Raiders are unlikely to accept any deal because they’re seeking a quarterback who changes their entire franchise. This leaves the Jets with no option other than to go after the best offensive option available in the market, Arizona State’s WR Jordyn Tyson.

Tyson has some stellar numbers coming into the NFL Draft, with 2,282 receiving yards for 22 touchdowns on 158 receptions. However, his history of injuries does raise some concern. This isn’t just a single injury question, as the wide receiver’s history includes a serious knee injury (torn ACL/MCL/PCL) while with the Colorado program in 2022, a fractured collarbone in 2024, and various hamstring issues this past season.

In his four-year collegiate career, Tyson missed 18 games due to injury and didn’t play in a full season during his time with either Colorado or Arizona State. Although no injuries are recurring, losing Caleb Downs could be a big miss in the draft.

Caleb Downs’ 2026 NFL Draft projections

Caleb Downs is a rare breed of high-level safety likely to be selected early in 2026. He’s arguably the most talented player in the class, known for his elite speed and exceptional football IQ. Downs also plays with the coverage skills of a cornerback and is highly effective against the run. He was a two-time unanimous All-American and was named the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year.

Caleb Downs hails from a bloodline with NFL history. His father, Gary, used to be a running back and had stints with the New York Giants, Denver Broncos, and Atlanta Falcons. Meanwhile, his older brother, Josh, plays for the Indianapolis Colts as a wide receiver. Also, his uncle, Dre Bly, was a former Pro Bowl cornerback, and currently, he’s the New York Jets’ assistant DBs coach.

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While the Jets were projected as his destination, Edholm’s mock draft revealed that Caleb Downs could be the first pick for the Cincinnati Bengals. He pointed out that Downs isn’t an elite physical specimen, but his instincts, coverage feel, and quick trigger all would upgrade the Bengals’ secondary, since the franchise is looking for more reliable players.

If Caleb Downs were to go in the top ten picks, he would be the only safety after Jamal Adams, who was picked by the Jets as the No. 6 overall pick in the draft.