Ohio State fans were eager to see Arvell Reese go as a Top 5 pick in the 2026 draft. After all, his successes during just one full season as a starter at Columbus warrant him that distinction. However, Reese is actually looking at losing nearly $17 million in the draft, as the LB faces a surprising drop in his draft stock.

Arvell Reese dropped from No. 2 in Daniel Jeremiah’s first mock draft to No. 7 in his second one on NFL Network. The Ohio State LB going to Washington would mean that he would be in for a $35 million rookie contract. If he were the second overall pick for the Jets, Reese would be earning a whopping $52 million.

The fall in ranks is surely surprising. It brings to light Aaron Rodgers’ situation during the 2005 NFL draft, where he slid from an expected #1 to #24. Daniel Jeremiah also makes his mock drafts based on insider intel, which signals a potential slide for Reese on draft night.

PFF shockingly placed the LB at No. 12 in its latest mock draft, while CBS Sports dropped him to No. 4. Texas Tech’s David Bailey seems to now be competing with Reese. That is primarily because the Jets need an edge rusher, and Bailey is just that. The Red Raiders phenom was unstoppable in the 2025 season and led the FBS in sacks with 14.5, more than double what Reese recorded.

The Jets desperately need a pass rusher who can add some juice because they could only bring in 36 sacks. Bailey has the numbers and is pro-ready, but Reese is just as elite and only needs some development.

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Reese is extremely versatile and powerful. While playing edge, he can really explode off the edge to get at the quarterback. He might not be the standard weight, but he has more than enough room for development, while still showing off that rushing power. Reese also has long arms, which make him a great choice for the pass rush. As a linebacker, he can zip into the backfield and get after ball-carriers. Not many defensive players have a skill set as unique.

At Ohio State, Reese seemed to power down a little during the last stretch of the schedule. His tackles dropped to below five after the Penn State game, and these low numbers lasted until the Big Ten Championship against Indiana. But Reese found his rhythm in the Miami game, hauling in seven tackles. He is, without a doubt, one of the most elite defensive players on the board, regardless of the stats.

Although Washington offers Reese $17 million less than the Jets, the defensive roster could make the team a good fit for him.

How Arvell Reese can be a part of the Washington defense

Washington will be more than happy to take Arvell Reese off the board because edge is a priority position for the Commanders in the draft. As Von Miller is expected to move on as a free agent, Dorance Armstrong is the only veteran in the room. Unfortunately, he is recovering from a knee surgery, making him more fragile than before. The Commanders need an impact player from the get-go, and with some pro-level coaching, Reese could be their biggest win of the draft.

Reese would be the best help for a defense that has the tackles on the board, but struggled to get to the quarterback enough in 2025. The franchise was able to pressure the quarterback only 20% of the time. With their sack leader gone in Miller, and the next man up still not being up to snuff, Washington will get antsy.

They can always look to get in players through free agency. But Washington skipping Reese would mean that they’ve ignored his gifts and the fact that he can be impactful despite his very young age.

One team’s loss is another team’s gain. If the Jets are losing interest in Arvell Reese, it gives teams lower in the draft order a chance to select him. Washington, with a clear need at the edge position, will be one of the fiercest competitors to get Reese.