Kalen DeBoer’s luck against smaller programs has haunted him before, and now it’s trailing him into the coaching carousel. While everyone expected DeBoer to be Penn State’s toughest pull, a fast-rising contender from James Madison has jumped him in the odds and now sits as the leading candidate for Penn State’s head-coaching job.

“Kalen DeBoer’s odds to be the next Penn State head coach are surging fast on Kalshi. DeBoer’s odds have doubled over the last couple of days. Bob Chesney still sits at the top with best odds, with DeBoer closing in and Terry Smith with third best,” CBS Sports Adam Breneman said on X.

Kalen DeBoer’s playoff path this season caught many eyes, and Penn State is one of them. After their last week’s 56-0 knockout win against Eastern Illinois, he is holding the second spot in Kalshi’s odds with a 17% chance to land the job. Even Terry Smith, Marcus Freeman, and Brent Key hold 12%, 7%, and 5% chances, respectively. But despite holding the best odds, Kalen DeBoer couldn’t surpass Bob Chesney’s 38% odds, who’s currently leading the charts.

Penn State’s brass has been clear about what they want next. Someone who can engineer long-term, sustainable winning, that’s where Chesney fits so naturally. His entire career has been a steady climb without shortcuts. He started in Division III at Salve Regina and turned them into a 23-9 operation over three seasons. Then he stepped into Division II at Assumption and delivered a 44-16 stretch with multiple postseason runs. After that came Holy Cross, where he transformed the program into an FCS force with titles, awards, and a national quarterfinal appearance as proof of concept. At every stop, he left the place stronger than he found it. And PSU could use exactly that kind of hand-holding.

The main concern is that Chesney has never coached at any Power Four program. Not as a head coach, not even as an assistant. And stepping into a job as big as Penn State without that background naturally makes people pause. But the on-field results are hard to dismiss. JMU has become one of the most complete mid-major teams in the country under his watch, ranking 26th nationally in Bill Connelly’s SP+ metric. Among Group of Six programs, only North Texas grades out higher, and even then, the gap comes with some important contextual differences.

Even from a financial standpoint, hiring Chesney won’t be a burden. Chesney isn’t exactly locked down by a massive contract, either. He’s making a little over $800,000 this year, and if a major conference school wants to hire him, they only have to cover about $1.25 million to get him out of his deal. PSU is betting on someone who has climbed fast, won everywhere, and handled every step well, but who hasn’t done it yet at a place this big. It would be a leap of faith. A calculated one, but a leap all the same.

Another factor that gives better odds to DeBoer is his ability to perform against ranked opponents, as Bama won four straight games this season. But in Chesney’s case, that’s the concerning part.

However, Kalen DeBoer might not all make a move to Penn State.

Kalen DeBoer’s Penn State links get a hit

Despite not being on the hot seat for once, Kalen DeBoer’s name keeps popping up on James Franklin’s possible replacement list. But as per ESPN’s Pete Thamel, DeBoer is not the real candidate.

“To me, the biggest enigma is who they are going to unveil,” Pete Thamel said on the College Football podcast. “They really thought they could land one of these playoff-type coaches. I’d be pretty stunned if they did. It doesn’t seem like any of that is lining up. There were a lot of Kalen DeBoer rumors. I’ve been told those are not true. But where they go, it’s going to be really interesting.”

Well, leaving Alabama to take over another high-stakes job doesn’t really make sense for Kalen DeBoer. He is already under scrutiny, as many shocking losses were very rarely seen in Nick Saban’s career. Like Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, and this year against Florida State. So filling up for Franklin will just make it worse.

On top of it, if Alabama decides to fire him, they will owe him an $87 million buyout, which DeBoer signed last season for eight years. Matching that level of money won’t be that straightforward for Penn State either.

So, now only time can tell if Kalen DeBoer is really planning a move or if it’s all empty promises.