Oregon’s got a date with destiny this Saturday against USC at Autzen Stadium. The No. 7 Ducks are sitting in a prime position to host a first-round playoff game if they can finish strong. But there’s a complication that’s been brewing for weeks now and hasn’t gotten any better. A $1.5 million star wideout will not be taking the field this Saturday. And that could make this must-win showdown against the Trojans considerably trickier than anyone expected.​

ESPN’s Pete Thamel delivered the news Oregon fans have been dreading on College GameDay Saturday morning. True freshman star Dakorien Moore won’t be suiting up against USC, marking his third consecutive absence. Dakorien Moore, who had everyone making comparisons to Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith, has been sidelined since suffering a non-contact knee injury in practice ahead of the Iowa game back on November 8. 

Moore has been Oregon’s most dynamic offensive weapon this season. He leads the team with 28 catches for 443 yards and four touchdowns through just eight games. And his absence leaves a gaping hole in an offense that desperately needs firepower against a USC defense that’s been much better than people realize.

What made Moore so special before the injury was his ability to deliver in big moments. Against Penn State in that double-overtime thriller at Happy Valley, Moore hauled in seven catches for 89 yards and looked completely unfazed by the pressure of playing in a hostile road environment against a top-10 opponent. He was everything Oregon hoped he’d be when they signed the five-star recruit out of Duncanville. 

The frustrating part is how the injury happened. There was no contact, no big hit, just a practice rep that went wrong before one of the most important stretches of games in recent Oregon history. Coach Dan Lanning has been tight-lipped about the specifics and any potential return timeline, only saying he “thought he’d be okay” when asked earlier this week, which doesn’t exactly inspire confidence that Dakorien Moore will be back anytime soon.​

With Moore out, Oregon had to lean on senior transfer Malik Benson and veteran Gary Bryant Jr. to carry the receiving load. But Bryant’s also dealing with an ankle injury that knocked him out of the Iowa game in the first quarter and kept him sidelined against Minnesota. That leaves Benson as the primary option. And while he’s been solid with 22 catches for 357 yards and three touchdowns this season, he’s not the explosive playmaker Moore is. 

Other players, such as Jeremiah McClellan and Justus Lowe, are getting more opportunities. But asking them to step up and replace Moore’s production against a desperate USC team that hasn’t won at Autzen Stadium since 2011 is a tall order. That 38-35 loss to the Trojans back in 2011 snapped a 21-game winning streak at Autzen. And USC hasn’t been able to win in Eugene since. This makes Saturday’s matchup even more loaded with historical weight.​ But there’s an even bigger risk.

Thin resume puts playoff hopes on the line

The thing that makes Moore’s absence even more critical is that Oregon can’t afford to lose this game, period. The Ducks are sitting at No. 7 in the CFP rankings with a 9-1 record. But their resume is thinner than a sheet of paper, and everyone knows it. 

CFP committee chair Hunter Yurachek admitted that Oregon is still reaping rewards from that early-season win over Penn State, except Penn State has completely fallen apart since then and is sitting at 4-6 with just one Big Ten win. Beyond that Penn State victory, Oregon’s best win is probably Iowa. Iowa is a team the committee inexplicably loves despite the Hawkeyes losing 12 straight games to AP top-10 opponents. 

Oregon ranks No. 34 nationally in strength of schedule. And while their efficiency metrics are strong, the fact that they’re being grouped with two-loss teams below them in the rankings instead of one-loss teams like Georgia, Texas Tech, and Ole Miss tells you everything about how fragile their playoff position really is.

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If Oregon drops this game to USC, all those efficiency numbers and that Penn State win won’t mean a darn thing when the committee makes its final selections. They need to win out, beat Washington in Seattle next week, and hope nobody notices they haven’t actually beaten anyone particularly impressive this season. And doing all that without their best playmaker makes the task exponentially harder.​