The Oregon Ducks are set to face Jedd Fisch’s Washington Huskies in the Cascade clash rivalry on November 29. The Ducks need the win to secure their playoff berth. Despite it being an away game, Dan Lanning’s team is favored by 6.5 points. However, if you are looking to bet on the game, you must know that Oregon has failed to cover the spread five times this season. Even then, putting money on the Ducks will pay massive dividends.

“I think defensively, they’re going to limit Washington enough. I’ll take Oregon to win, and I’ll take them to cover anything under a touchdown. And I will say I sat in Oregon’s team meetings on Friday, and a lot of the talk has been about their inability to cover. It’s been heard,” said Josh Pate on the November 26 podcast episode of the Bussin’ with the Boys podcast.

According to FOX Sports’ model, the Ducks are currently 6.5-point favorites, and the total for the game is set for 51.5 points. Dan Lanning is also coming off statement wins against USC (42-27) and 48-14 against UCLA, and will look to continue his dominant showing. The matchup is scheduled to start at 3.30 PM ET and will be available to watch on CBS Sports. As for the final score, FOX’s model predicts it to be 29-22 for the Ducks, with Oregon having a 72.8% chance of winning. Still, Dan Lanning will have to tread cautiously.

For one, a loss against Washington can see a 6th-ranked Oregon not even making the 12-team playoff. “I think they’ll still be able to go to Seattle and knock off Washington. I think they have to. When you look at the College Football Playoff, the way it is unfolding, some people think they can lose this game and still be fine. I don’t think that is the case. I think Dan Lanning will have this team in a frenzy, just like he has them every week,” predicted CBS Sports’ Danny Kanell. Not just that, a low-scoring game is also on the cards.

Ducks offensive coordinator Will Stein’s offense is ranked 12th nationally, but most of it is through the team’s rushing prowess. Oregon ranks 8th nationally in rushing offense, accumulating 228.64 yards per game. In contrast, Stein’s passing offense is ranked 53rd nationally, averaging 243.2 yards per game. In that situation, Washington presents a mounting challenge, as the team’s rushing defense is ranked 18th nationally. The numbers don’t guarantee a win for Oregon. Still, the Ducks are expected to do a dominant job, along with covering the 6.5-point spread.

Why is betting under risky for the Oregon vs. Washington matchup?

Washington has a 5-5 record against the spread this season, and it can be risky to bet on that line. A win for Washington, despite a solid run defense, is unlikely, considering their 10-13 loss to Wisconsin, and they won’t lose by less than 6.5 points either. In the last five games the two teams have faced off, the Ducks have posted a total of 173 points, while Washington has notched just 144. Going against the spread would then be unfavorable due to the historical numbers. Not only that, but the recent matchups have bolstered Oregon’s hopes even further.

While most analysts are heading to pick Oregon under 51.5 points, the major money will be to cover the spread for Michigan. The BetMGM and FanDuel models also indicate a pick under 51.5, and no major entities are touting Oregon to cover the spread. “I’m going to say we’re going to see a lot of field goals with Oregon and Washington, and that leads to a lower-scoring game. Pick under 51.5 total points,” predicted CBS Sports’ Chip Patterson.

Current probability rankings rank Oregon by a margin of 54.3% to cover the spread, giving -119 odds. Going under 51.5 points yields -110 odds, according to FanDuel, which ideally ensures a higher payout. However, since the game can be high-scoring too, considering the even matchup, both Oregon and Washington offer. Betting on Oregon to cover the spread seems like a safe bet to make. We saw the same thing happen against USC, where a 42-27 score was significantly higher than the 59.5-point under prediction.