Indiana’s national championship win last season was an unprecedented moment in the sport’s history. More impressively, Curt Cignetti didn’t do it the way Ohio State did in 2024. Instead of spending NIL money to recruit elite talent from the portal, the Hoosiers’ head coach focused on finding hidden gems and trusting his system’s ability to maximize their potential. However, as per an Indiana fan, that pathway may not be sustainable for long.

Co-host of CrimsonCast, a popular podcast on Indiana athletics, Galen Clavio elaborated on Curt Cignetti’s claims regarding the threats posed to college football by the current NIL model.

“The vast majority of college players are going to land between the ages of 18 and 22,” Clavio said. “You’ve got to make some kind of changes to how this is done. Everybody bidding on everybody at various levels of equal, there’s going to be obviously some teams like Indiana who take advantage of the fact that the big inefficiency in the marketplace right now is overlooked players who have two, three, four years of development that they can bring in and plug in immediately.

“Even that will essentially start to get to a point where it becomes overpriced,” Clavio warned.

Cignetti’s model was instantly revealed the moment he joined the Hoosiers. He prioritized smart, prudent recruitment over high budgets in that situation. After joining the program in November 2023, Cignetti built a 2024 transfer class that ranked 10th nationally, per On3. The program had 31 transfers, including four four-star players, 25 three-star players, and two unranked players, but no five-star talent.

The 2025 transfer class was the perfect epitome of Cignetti’s model. Of all the 23 transfers, only Fernando Mendoza and Pat Coogan were four-star players, while the remaining 21 were three-star talents. With this roster, he won the national championship.

Tight end Riley Nowakowski was one of those recruits who would normally draw Cignetti’s interest. He was coming off an average season with the Wisconsin Badgers, where he had 11 receptions for 74 yards. Cignetti recruited him via the portal, and he proved once again that Cignetti’s system was effective. In Indiana, Nowakowski had 32 receptions for 387 yards and two receiving touchdowns, while also rushing for two one-yard touchdowns. His performance soon earned him a place in the 2026 NFL Draft in the fifth round.

On Indiana’s defensive line, Tyrique Tucker was one of the standout players. Tucker was an unranked recruit from high school with no scholarship offers. He then moved to James Maddison as a walk-on before earning a scholarship. When Cignetti and his coaching staff moved to Bloomington, he joined them and became one of the most dominant interior defensive linemen. In their championship-winning season, he recorded 40 tackles, 12 tackles for loss, and six sacks, earning First Team All-Big Ten and Associated Press Third Team All-America honors.

Compared with the general overspending model, Cignetti’s style is more effective across all grounds. He achieved back-to-back playoff appearances and a national championship with a $21.1 million roster value. The Texas Longhorns’ 2025 roster was valued at about $35 to $40 million.

But with the latest report on Indiana’s roster value, Cignetti’s model is quickly becoming ineffective. From a $21.1 million roster value in 2025 to $32.4 million in 2026, the moneyball is beginning to cost so much money, too. Cignetti’s players have experienced the highs of winning the national championship. Hence, keeping them is becoming as costly as keeping the coach.

Most especially, Clavio’s argument remains that several college programs would begin emulating this model. And as a result of the frequency, even mid-tier players would soon become expensive. The economic fact that prices rise with increased demand will definitely play out here.

Curt Cignetti’s recruitment in Indiana

Cignetti finished his first season with an 11-2 record. This was just a year after the program, under Tom Allen, finished with a 3-9 season. Unfortunately, Cignetti and the Hoosiers ended their season in the first round of the playoffs. Regardless, it was an impressive season by every standard. Of course, no one changes a winning model.

Hence, Cignetti ran his model again after the 2024 regular season, while he assembled the class of 2025 on National Signing Day. The Hoosiers signed a total of 21 recruits, including 20 three-star players and only one four-star player.

On National Signing Day for the 2026 class, Indiana signed 22 players, including four four-stars and 18 three-stars. Weeks later, the transfer portal opened, and the program had 17 incoming players, including four four-stars and 13 three-stars. In all of his recruitment, Cignetti has never added a five-star recruit.

Cignetti’s model seems like something that works for a mid-program. Once the players can win national championships, the model becomes exposed. And as others emulate it, it becomes just as unsustainable as the NIL model.