Paul Finebaum is back with another hot take, and this time he’s weighing in on the Indiana–Oregon semifinal. But it’s not guesswork. He’s following a pattern from this playoff run, and the logic is hard to dismiss. Indiana may be the only team to beat Oregon this season, but in the Peach Bowl, Finebaum believes the script could flip and the night may finally favor the Ducks.

“I don’t like their chances, but the one thing I do like is precedent,” Paul Finebaum said on the January 6th ESPN CFB show. “We’ve seen a number of rematches already in the postseason. We saw one in the SEC game, and Georgia beat Alabama, which beat them. Then we saw Georgia lose to Ole Miss, a team it had beaten, and we also saw Alabama beat Oklahoma. So it’s tough to win the second time. I know that’s the oldest cliche in sports, but that is really Indiana’s biggest problem on Friday night.”

Take his favorite SEC example first: Alabama vs. Oklahoma. In the regular season, Oklahoma won the turnover battle 3–0 and controlled the game. Fast forward to the playoff rematch, and Alabama flipped everything. The Tide forced two massive turnovers, including Zabien Brown’s 50-yard pick-six that tied the game at 17 and completely swung momentum. From there, it was all Alabama. Special teams mistakes by Oklahoma didn’t help either. A blocked punt led to points, sparking a 27–0 Alabama run after trailing 17–0.

Add in defensive adjustments with five sacks and just 27 Oklahoma yards in the third quarter, and the rematch looked nothing like the first meeting. Then there’s Ole Miss vs. Georgia. Same story, different teams. Georgia closed strong in the regular season, outscoring Ole Miss 17–0 in the fourth quarter. In the playoff semifinal, the Rebels flipped the script, outscoring Georgia 20–10 late and erasing a nine-point second-half deficit. Ole Miss capitalized when it mattered most, including a brutal misfired snap on Georgia’s fourth-and-2 that directly led to a Rebels touchdown.

This trend now brings us to Oregon vs. Indiana.

The Ducks’ 30–20 regular-season loss on October 11, 2025, wasn’t about talent—it was about chaos. Oregon committed a season-high seven turnovers, gifting Indiana 20 points. Dante Moore threw two interceptions in the fourth quarter, while the offense managed just 267 total yards. Hence, the Ducks never found rhythm. The offensive line gave up six sacks, penalties piled up (seven for 64 yards), and the defense couldn’t get off the field late.

Indiana, meanwhile, did what it always does. They are one of the least penalized teams in the country for a reason. If Oregon cleans up the turnovers, protects the QB, and plays disciplined football, Paul Finebaum’s prophecy suddenly looks very real. Because based on this playoff trend, rematches don’t forgive regular-season stints.

Clash of the NFL favorite QBs 

The Peach Bowl is shaping up as a quarterback showcase, with Fernando Mendoza (Indiana) and Dante Moore (Oregon). These two names are already circling the top of the upcoming NFL Draft. Moore has hinted that he could return to Eugene next season, but with his draft stock exploding, that decision may not stay firm for long. Around the league, he’s viewed as a top-five talent, and in some circles, even a No. 1 overall pick.

Mock drafts from outlets like ESPN and The New York Times have him going as high as No. 2, with teams like the New York Jets in the mix. One projection even sends him first overall to the Las Vegas Raiders. Across 16 tracked mock drafts, Moore’s average position sits at 1.81, making him the consensus No. 2 overall prospect. He is right behind Fernando Mendoza. Betting markets back that hype too, listing Moore at +450 to go No. 1, second only to Mendoza.

For Mendoza, the path has always been clear. When he transferred from Cal to Indiana, the goal was simple: build a résumé NFL scouts couldn’t ignore. And for the most part, he’s done exactly that. The 23-year-old became the first quarterback in Hoosiers history to win the Heisman. That alone says plenty. The one thing keeping Moore’s decision up in the air? Experience. He has just 19 career college starts, while Mendoza brings 30 to the table. That gap matters.

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