Paul Finebaum believes Texas has a real chance to win the national championship. With a star QB in Arch Manning and a head coach, Steve Sarkisian, who’s making $11.05 million in 2026, it’s understandable why he’d make that pick. But if there’s one thing standing between Sarkisian’s team and a championship run, it’s a brutal schedule.

Even the analyst feels no contender has a tougher road ahead than the Longhorns. So, he didn’t hesitate when asked which team drew the toughest slate in the conference while speaking on SEC Network. Here’s what he said:

“Let’s talk about our contender here. Texas, everybody thinks they could be the national champion. They’ve got Arch. Look at this schedule. Ohio State, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Florida, Ole Miss. I mean, at LSU, at A&M, this is one of the trickiest schedules for a contender I have seen.”

If you’re wondering what makes Paul Finebaum’s thoughts so important, it’s that Texas isn’t just any team with a tough slate. They’ll be playing nine SEC matchups under the league’s revamped 2026 format.

It’s hard to argue with Finebaum’s opinion, since Texas will get Ohio State sandwiched between Texas State and UTSA before jumping straight into SEC play at Neyland Stadium. And even though the Longhorns avoid a night game in Knoxville with an 11 a.m. kickoff, Tennessee sure isn’t a comfortable conference opener.

After a bye week, Oklahoma will wait in Dallas for the annual Red River Rivalry. Thereafter, Florida will arrive looking to repeat last season’s upset, while Ole Miss will follow immediately after. Mississippi State will be closing on Halloween weekend in October. November includes trips to Missouri and LSU before coming back home for the Arkansas game. The Longhorns will close the regular season with another road game against Texas A&M. 

The interesting part is that Texas has only four true road games, but three of those venues could be among the loudest environments in college football next season. Steve Sarkisian’s team will lack proper resting time, which is why Paul Finebaum seems particularly concerned.

The Longhorns are entering the season carrying national championship expectations after reaching the CFP semifinals twice in the last three years. 

Arch Manning is entering his second season as the full-time starter. Transfer additions like Cam Coleman and Hollywood Smothers address major offensive needs. The talent is undeniable, but the question is whether Texas can maintain that level for three straight months against its schedule.

Last season, Texas faced opponents with a combined win percentage of 53.4%. In 2026, that figure jumps to 62.0%. Still, while Paul Finebaum sees the toughest schedule in America, he also sees the team most capable of surviving it.

Paul Finebaum thinks Texas is ready for the moment

During an appearance on McElroy and Cubelic in the Morning in May, Paul Finebaum pointed directly to Texas as a team poised to take the next step. With Arch Manning returning after throwing for 3,163 yards and 26 touchdowns, he’s betting high on the Longhorns. He even defended the coach.

“He’s still been to the playoffs twice. Last year was not a disaster,” he said of Steve Sarkisian. “I think they have the capacity to win the national championship. I just want to know what is different.”

The answer may be everywhere. Cam Coleman arrives after catching 56 passes for 708 yards at Auburn last season. Hollywood Smothers gives Texas a proven rushing threat while Will Muschamp takes over defensive play-calling duties.

That’s why Paul Finebaum’s comments on the schedules carry weight. He’s not saying Texas has the toughest schedule because he doubts Steve Sarkisian’s Longhorns. He’s saying Texas might be good enough to win it all despite having the toughest schedule in the country.