Curt Cignetti’s Indiana was a feel-good underdog story last year. They didn’t just win the national title; their QB1, Fernando Mendoza, won the Heisman, too. For the 2026 season, though, they will have a grueling schedule. But is there an underdog out there who can surprise everyone, just like Indiana did? According to Paul Finebaum, another Big 10 program can exceed expectations this upcoming season.

“I don’t think it is Indiana because they have a really difficult schedule,” Paul Finebaum told NBC Sports. “I’m not convinced they can get there. But Penn State has a chance. And in case you missed it, James Franklin is no longer there, so they will be good again. Rest assured that the national nightmare of 12 years is over. They have a very good coach in Matt Campbell.”

Penn State had a difficult season last year. After winning their first three non-conference games, they lost 5 straight. Two of those losses came against struggling programs like UCLA and Northwestern. As a result, PSU fired James Franklin midway through the season. But now, Matt Campbell has come after a successful tenure at Iowa State. He also has a major advantage over all Big 10 programs.

“They have the easiest schedule in the country,” Finebaum said. “They don’t play any of the top three teams in the Big Ten: Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon. So, if you missed that, that’s three losses right there that they can overcome. And if they can find a way to nine or 10 wins? They’re probably going to need 10 wins because their three non-conference games are against Allegheny, Altoona, and East Pittsburgh.”

According to ESPN’s FPI rankings, PSU has the 7th-easiest schedule among all Power Four programs. Their first three games are against Marshall, Temple, and Buffalo, while the next two will see them face Wisconsin and Northwestern. Although all these teams will have a slim chance of pulling off an upset, doing so against PSU in 2026 will be extremely difficult.

PSU’s October slate is stacked with Michigan and USC. The Trojans’ head coach, Lincoln Riley, is under pressure, and he will need to perform well this year. Never mind, Jayden Maiava is a perceived Heisman dark horse contender. Michigan, on the contrary, might not surprise them, considering it is in a massive transition under new head coach Kyle Whittingham. Apart from these two games, the Washington game in November might also be difficult.

Matt Campbell has several reasons to succeed at Penn State

Matt Campbell has brought his Iowa State blueprint with him to Happy Valley. The head coach grabbed former Iowa State QB Rocco Becht from the portal along with 24 other players. PSU has Carson Hasen, Chase Sowell, and Benjamin Brahmer, with whom Campbell achieved success in the Big 12.

“He’s like the missing puzzle piece, and he brings everything back together… He’s super close to the offensive side as well as the defensive side,” Matt Campbell said about Becht at the Big 10 Media Days. “I feel like as a player that’s been in college football for a while, it’s the same game. No matter where you’re playing, it’s still going to be loud.”

But it’s not just the players. Campbell also brought much of his former staff to Happy Valley. Taylor Mouser came in as OC, someone who had helped his former program achieve a historic 11-win season in 2024. Former Iowa State GM Derek Hoodjer took up personnel responsibilities.

Despite bringing a considerable contingent of ISU players, Campbell also retained many PSU players. Linebacker Tony Rojas will play a major role this season, while players like Daryus Dixson and Zion Tracy will make the PSU roster familiar.