The balance of power in college football is shifting fast, and money is leading the charge. As the transfer portal looms, NIL valuation is about to soar, hitting a new reality next season. And ESPN’s Pete Thamel is getting real on how quarterbacks’ pay can even surpass coaches’ paychecks.

“This market looks robust already, guys. You’ve got Cincinnati’s Brendan Soresby at the top of the market, Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola, and TCU’s Josh Hoover went in yesterday,” ESPN’s Pete Thamel said on College GameDay. “You have Arizona State’s Sam Levitt and Florida’s DJ Lagway. I made some calls today, guys. Sources told me the tip-top of this quarterback market financially could reach $5 million for one season.”

The transfer portal is about to open on January 2nd, and “top-tier” quarterbacks could command as much as $5 million for a single season. And teams might even invest more than that amount, too. Whereas coaches like Georgia Tech Brent Key earn $4.5 million and SMU’s Rhett Lashlee $2.47 million.

For perspective, take last year’s Georgia transfer quarterback Carson Beck’s case, who went to Miami for $4 million. Even Duke’s quarterback Darian Mensah, who entered this season as one of the highest-paid players in college football after accepting a $3 million NIL package.

Teams are investing heavily in their roster and NIL front to bring talented players into the team. Remember how Michigan invested $10.5 million to bring in Bryce Underwood into the team? Now, even players like Dylan Raiola, Brendan Soresby, Josh Hoover, Sam Leavitt, and DJ Lagway can earn way more than they are earning now. Raiola earned $3 million this season with Nebraska; with teams like Louisville and Arizona State desperate for a quarterback, he might earn more than that next season.

The same is the case with Brendan Soresby, who’s sitting at the top of the transfer portal market with Texas Tech eyeing him. Now, knowing the Red Raiders’ $28 million investment in NIL money this season, it’s pretty clear that they can pay a big amount to get their favorite quarterback. Even Indiana is eyeing Josh Hoover as Fernando Mendoza is declaring for the draft next season. Just like Michigan, Indiana has their own Dave Portnoy, and that’s billionaire Mark Cuban.

This man is always eager to uplift their alma mater; whether it’s the $5 million gift to create a sports media and technology center or the $6 million to IU’s club rugby team, he is always there to help them out. So, giving more than $5 million to get them a talented quarterback won’t be an issue for Indiana. With that, other teams losing their QBs will increase Sam Leavitt and DJ Lagway’s value too.

“Oregon may lose Dante Moore. Miami will be in the quarterback market again,” Pete Thamel highlighted. “So will LSU. So when you really take a look at what could drive this quarterback market, it’s going to be the most expensive in the history of college football.”

Well, this increases the supply and demand of both, and after top teams like Penn State and Nebraska and many others failed to gain momentum, no team is ready to take chances. With the QB market getting a boost, there’s one player who’s accepting a pay cut to support his team.

Arch Manning makes major NIL verdict

With college football taking a major step to give steady NIL support to quarterbacks, Texas Arch Manning’s decision highlights the other reality. As the NIL era grows, teams are trying hard to keep up with their roster, and to make sure the Longhorns don’t face such a problem in the portal moment and recruiting, Manning is opting to take a pay cut ahead of his second season as a starter.

The Longhorns are planning to allocate around $14 million to football next season from the House settlement, which allows schools to distribute up to $20.5 million in revenue to athletes. This will help Texas to spread resources across its roster.

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This shows the kind of team player Arch Manning actually is. He reportedly earned at least $3.5 million this season through NIL deals with Red Bull, Uber, and Warby Parker. While his gesture earns praise, Texas now looks to bounce back from their 9-3 season.