There’s one game on Tennessee’s 2025 schedule that you might want to circle. And it’s not the SEC gauntlet against Georgia (September 14). Entering his fifth year as the Vols HC, Josh Heupel has been great. Since 2021, he’s stacked a 37-15 record, held his own against Alabama and Florida (2-2 each), and nearly reset expectations for the entire program. The Vols have shown they can win in tough spots, and they’ve got the roster to make a push to the top ten for a second straight year. But there’s a doubt if they can change history in November.

If you ask Phil Steele, 2025 might not be the year Josh Heupel breaks a 20-plus-year streak curse. It’s been 21 long years since Tennessee tasted victory at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium (2003). Since then, Southern Miss and Vanderbilt have won at the Swamp, but for some reason, the Vols just find themselves the unlucky contenders against Florida in their home venue. In a new episode on The Tony Basilio Show on July 12, he dropped a reality check on Tennessee’s November 22 game in Gainesville.

“This one I’m actually siding a little bit with Florida,” Steele said. “I think they played extremely well in the Swamp. They’ve got more coming back than Tennessee does this year.” And it isn’t just to do with the venue or history. “I actually have Florida [as] a six-point favorite in this game. I think the Gators may just be a slightly better team at home, especially if DJ Legway is 100% healthy,” Steeler said.

With DJ Lagway healthy and Billy Napier finally coaching with some juice, Florida could very well be the better team, given their home-field advantage. Even former Gators star Urban Meyer is certain about the outlook. “Somehow, Coach Napier, the staff and the leaders on that team ignored the noise and went out and played their best football at the end of the season. I think there’s something there right now,” he said on Triple Option. And the credit goes to the QB. 

Last season, despite limited reps behind Graham Mertz, DJ Lagway flashed starpower winning in all the games he started and racking up 1,915 yards and 12 TDs. He enters this season as one of the most touted SEC QBs in contrast to App State transfer Joey Aguilar who’s replacing the Vols playoff QB Nico Iamaleava. But don’t bury Tennessee just yet. They might have a new QB but he’s a guy who has over 6,700 career yards and 56 TDs. Besides, he’ll be surrounded by talent like Mike Matthews and Chris Brazzell II at wideout, Star Thomas in the backfield, and 5-star David Sanders Jr. anchoring the offensive line. Defensively, they return enough playmakers to be dangerous. So what’s the outlook for the Vols this season? 

Do Josh Heupel’s Vols have the grit to win in 2025?

Tennessee kicks off 2025 with a neutral-site opener vs. Syracuse and a few breathers at Neyland—ETSU, UAB, and New Mexico State. But the real gauntlet starts in mid-September, and thankfully for Rocky Top, the Georgia game is at home this year. Still, the Florida game is the one that’s circled on every whiteboard in Knoxville. No LSU, Texas, Ole Miss, Mizzou, or A&M on the schedule. Just Florida and Alabama on the road. 

If Josh Heupel’s offense executes its design to run wild, then 10 wins are very much on the table. Per Pro Football Focus, Tennessee’s preseason win projection sits at 8.03. Their odds to make the College Football Playoff is 26%. While their chance to win the SEC is a meager 7.8%. The Vols have just 1.87% projection to win it all. The numbers don’t scream title run, but they do whisper dangerously if it clicks.

But until Josh Heupel erases that 20-year Gainesville ghost, it’s hard for playoff talk in Knoxville. And the first place to start with is to address their QB situation.