College football playoff predictions are already loose. It’s that time of the year when hot takes and preseason rankings set the tone for months of tailgate debates. Now, one of the trusted voices in preseason predictions dropped a bombshell that’s sure to rattle some SEC fan bases. But there’s a big reason why longtime insider Phil Steele left Josh Heupel’s team out of his 2025 Top 10 rankings. And you already guessed why. 

Tennessee, the darlings of last year’s 12-team playoff, made their first playoff run in 2024. But they’re no longer considered a Top 10 heading into the fall as they’re snubbed from July’s preseason rankings. And it all comes down to one high-profile QB exit. On The Tony Basilio Show on July 12, Phil Steele revealed that he yanked the Vols from his coveted top-tier list after redshirt sophomore Nico Iamaleava bolted following a nasty NIL situation. “After Nico left, I actually had to pull him out of there,” he admitted. “It’s the first time I’ve ever had to make that change. So, yes, I would have been a lot higher on Tennessee had Nico been there.” That’s how important their former QB was to the playoff equation. 

Back in February, Phil Steele boldly placed Tennessee at No. 10 in his 2025 Projected AP Preseason Top 10, right next to the likes of Ohio State, Texas, and Georgia. After all, everyone thought this would be the year Nico Iamaleava would fully transform into a superstar. Instead, by mid-April, chaos crept in when he hit the transfer portal one day after skipping the Vols’ spring practice that stemmed from an unfinished NIL business. By the end of the week, he had signed with his hometown school, UCLA. 

The move sent shockwaves through the SEC and led to an unexpected QB carousel, with the Bruins’ transfer QB Joey Aguilar, a former App State standout, heading to Knoxville in what felt like college football’s first QB trade. This guy may not have SEC experience, but he isn’t short of talent. In 2024, he threw for 3,757 yards, 33 touchdowns, and completed 64% of his passes, better numbers than Nico posted in his lone season as Tennessee’s starter. That’s what gives Phil Steele some hope the Vols can stay afloat offensively.

Phil Steele isn’t sweeping Tennessee under the rug

In light of the QB situation in Knoxville, Phil Steele pushed Tennessee back 10 spots. Now, he has them sitting at No. 20 in his July update. But he still believes the Vols have what it takes to finish strong. “This year they unexpectedly lost their QB at the end of spring,” he said. “They lose their school records, rush RB (Dylan Sampson), top 3 WRs, and 4 starting (O-linemen). Normally, I would call for a large drop (in offensive production), but they will be close to last year’s numbers.” That production, by the way, is 35.7 points per game. And then, there’s the schedule favor. 

“When you look at the schedule, I probably have them right now at 9 and 3 on the year,” Phil Steele said, pointing to another favorable SEC slate where the Vols avoid Texas, LSU, and Ole Miss again. “I’ve got them favored in nine of their 12 games this year. But I would have had them even higher than that.” Florida might be a tough one to crack, though. Defensively, he actually likes Tennessee’s chances to maintain or at least not plummet. Despite losing edge monster James Pearce Jr., the Vols return three of their top six tacklers, including linebackers Arion and Boo Carter. “DC Tim Banks has an improved back (seven) and the LBs drive the bus of this defense,” Steele said.

In the end, Tennessee is still a good team, just no longer a playoff team in Phil Steele’s book. And in this era of super-charged quarterbacks and portal drama, that’s all it takes to tumble from playoff hopeful to underdog.