Steve Sarkisian did not pull any punches during this offseason. Texas poured an estimated $45.9 million into its football operations and roster retention through NIL support, bringing in a haul of elite talent. Now Arch Manning enters Year 4 in Austin, and with that level of financial backing around him, the expectations on his shoulders are massive.

CBS Sports analyst Brad Crawford believes Manning sits right at the center of that pressure.

“It has to be Arch Manning or bust this season for Longhorns,” he said. “He’s got to be a Heisman finalist-type production year from Arch for that Texas team to go from nine, ten wins to that 12 or 13 necessary to get to the CFP semifinals or better.”

That is a pretty heavy label. But look at the roster, and it becomes easier to understand why it is being thrown around. Texas is not asking Arch Manning to carry a bad team. The Longhorns have loaded up around him, including Auburn WR Cam Coleman, who brings 5-star pedigree and a reputation as one of the biggest portal additions at receiver. NC State RB Hollywood Smothers and fellow transfer RB Raleek Brown give the Longhorns more options in the backfield.

Then there is the O-line, where Texas has two tackles viewed as future first-round NFL prospects. Arch Manning has the pieces. Now he has to make them work. The interesting part is that the QB already showed flashes of what Texas wants during the second half of last season. His numbers changed dramatically once he settled in.

Across his first seven games, Arch Manning threw for 1,149 yards, 12 touchdowns and five interceptions. Over his final six, he finished with 1,714 passing yards, 14 touchdowns and only two interceptions. He also ran for 206 yards and five touchdowns while contributing a touchdown catch on a trick play. That version of him is why the expectations have gotten so loud.

Crawford thinks he needs to take another step and produce at something close to a Heisman finalist level if Texas is going to make the jump from a good team to a genuine national title threat.

“I think he has to be,” he said. “He has to have a good start, though. Texas cannot lose one of these early-season games. Week two against Ohio State, that’s the game that I think all of us have circled to kind of see Arch Manning’s national coming-out party and whether or not this Steve Sarkisian team is the best he’s had.”

This is where the big spending starts to make sense. Last year, Texas was thinking ahead. It signed the No. 1 high school class but had just the No. 23 transfer class. This time, Steve Sarkisian went after players who can help right now, and the program ended up with the No. 3 transfer class in the country.

Steve Sarkisian has been down this road before. He built another loaded roster around Quinn Ewers, only for Texas to fall short against Ohio State in the CFP semifinal after reaching the CFP semifinals. That loss appears to have sharpened the strategy. This time, the roster is deep, the spending is massive, and the coaching staff has also changed, with Will Muschamp taking over as DC. So the setup is clear.