Brian Kelly has real urgency to break his three-year playoff barren streak. And for several folks, 2025 is a year projected in LSU’s favor. After all, the ingredients are there. They’re returning key players from the 2024 lineup—Garrett Nussmeier at QB, Aaron Anderson at WR, and Caden Durham at RB. Harold Perkins and Jacobian Guillory are also back from injury. In addition, they’ve compiled the top transfer class in the nation with 17 players. Yet somehow, ESPN isn’t as high on them.

ESPN had Brian Kelly’s LSU at No. 12 with 17.1 FPI. The Tigers’ win projection is just 7.9 games, their playoff chances sit at 30.3%, and their national championship odds stand at just 1.8%. But it’s the eight wins that made an LSU faithful do a double-take.

Just as the channel name suggests, Matt Moscona laid it bare in a new episode of After Further Review: LSU on June 8. “That seems like a crazy low number for all the talent that this team has,” he said. “You’re replacing both coordinators, lost a Heisman-winning quarterback, two first-round picks at receiver. There were a ton of questions on that team a year ago, and you obviously had a very difficult schedule, so tempering expectations a year ago was probably the right thing.” And he’s right.

A year ago, there were questions about post-Heisman hangover after Jayden Daniels’ NFL departure. LSU fired DC Matt House, while OC Mike Denbrock left. But this year, the schedule’s manageable, the depth is proven, and the offensive firepower is explosive. “You’ve got continuity on your coaching staff with both coordinators returning. You’ve got very few questions. The one real question that they have is the offensive line, but even still, you return a starter in DJ Chester.”

Yet the computers are treating LSU like a rebuilding project. To add insult to the analytics, betting lines have LSU opening as underdogs against Clemson, Alabama, and Ole Miss. 

“Clemson, a two and a half point favorite at home, I get it,” Matt Moscona said. “They return Cade Klubnik. They were a playoff team a year ago. I get Dabo’s won a championship. I get why that line is what it is.” But Alabama and Ole Miss are different. Both teams lost their experienced QB1s.

LSU is a 2.5-point underdog at Ole Miss and 6.5 at Bama. But now, it’s perception versus potential. If Kelly’s squad stumbles early, dropping the Clemson opener, momentum could spiral. But if they start strong, LSU could be favored in nearly every game by November. The pressure’s on Brian Kelly now not just to win, but to prove the metrics wrong. 

Brian Kelly’s seat is getting hot

Brian Kelly is still on edge. For him, it’s the college football playoff or bust season. ESPN isn’t lenient, not just on LSU but on Kelly too. He joins the list of the 10 coaches to watch in 2025.

“Kelly came to the Bayou with the expressed purpose of winning a national title, just like the three Tigers coaches before him (Ed Orgeron, Les Miles, Nick Saban). Instead, he watched his former team, Notre Dame, make a CFP run while he sat home again. Kelly could have his best team as quarterback Garrett Nussmeier stayed, and LSU made a strong transfer portal push,” ESPN wrote. 

Garrett Nussmeier is back for his fifth college football season and his second start in Baton Rouge. Crucial transfer pieces are also lining up for LSU this year, including EDGE Patrick Payton, WR Nic Anderson, and S AJ Haulcy. So, if LSU has a playoff chance written in their destiny, it’s now. And needless to say, the pressure on Brian Kelly to make it in 2025 is higher than ever. 

Because in Baton Rouge, 9-3 might pay the bills, but it sure won’t quiet the noise. Not with this roster and not with these expectations.