Texas QB Arch Manning is looking to regain the hype that surrounded him when he took over as the starting signal-caller for the Longhorns. That hype faded after the third-generation Manning had an iffy 2025 campaign. Before that, some analysts were even seeing him as the QB1 for the 2026 NFL Draft. Now, draft analyst Todd McShay doesn’t even have him in his top 3 for next year’s draft.

“Arch, interestingly enough, at number four, very similar grade to Carr just above him, but I think we know where he can improve as a passer,” McShay said on his July 1 appearance on The Rich Eisen Show. “We also know how gifted a runner. I think it’s almost underrated how, when I watched his tape and just went back, the acceleration and the speed were something that was not there. He’s different in that regard.”

McShay arrived at his analysis after studying the film of every QB. He also got to see them at the Manning Passing Academy camp last week. According to the analyst, Steve Sarkisian’s QB1 has several advantages in terms of his athletic traits. However, his fundamentals are still a work in progress.

The Texas QB grew into his role last season after struggling in the Week 1 loss to Ohio State. There were glimpses, but he struggled under pressure. Towards the end of the campaign, Manning was more poised in the pocket and showed willingness to use his legs under pressure.

In hindsight, not all of Texas’s offensive struggles should be put on the QB. The lack of quality in the wide receiver room didn’t help his case. It was made more difficult by a young offensive line still growing together as a unit. Even Steve Sarkisian admitted that the Longhorns failed to establish their run game as a threat. That limited the passing offense.

McShay also looked at Notre Dame QB CJ Carr, who has been overshadowing Manning for the upcoming season. During the Manning Passing Academy camp last weekend, Carr stood out from the rest of the players, explaining why he ranks 3rd on McShay’s list. His physical performance “wasn’t even close” to the rest of the counselors, including Manning.

The Notre Dame signal caller is also heading one step ahead in the Heisman race. CJ Carr is currently leading the odds to win the Heisman at +750, while Manning is at +800. But these two aren’t the only ones in the race anymore; Oregon and South Carolina signal callers are also closing in and are even ranking better than these two.

Top 2 predictions by Todd McShay for the 2027 draft

The outcome of his analysis surprised even the NFL analyst, as South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers sits at No. 2 despite having lower college production than Manning. He started all 12 games, completing 178 of 293 passes for 2,437 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. In contrast, Manning had 3,562 total yards and 37 total touchdowns. But for what the modern NFL looks for in a QB, Sellers possesses the physical frame and dual-threat speed.

“Kind of surprised. I thought it was going to be Arch, Dante, neck and neck for number one, based on this, which is purely off of the tape and where they are now and recognizing that Arch is supremely gifted and has a chance to continue to develop and could very easily be the first overall pick in the 2027 class but also could go back to school in 2027 and be in the 2028 class,” McShay said.

McShay and other analysts widely see Oregon’s Dante Moore (like Joel Klatt) as the top quarterback prospect for the 2027 NFL draft. Moore has a good command of the offense during high-pressure situations. McShay also ranked Moore as the “best pure passer in the country.”