Penn State is ruling college football ahead of the season, featuring in the top selections of every list and ranking. This is James Franklin’s 12 season with the Nittany Lions, and is probably his best shot at finally winning a Natty. That is the majority belief and hope for PSU, as it brings a team that has some elite players taking center stage. However, with such big storylines in play, will James Franklin be able to cross out one more long-awaited goal from his list?

A star QB in Drew Allar, a pair of fierce RBs in Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, and a defensive genius in DC Jim Knowles: James Franklin has it all. It’s all systems go for Penn State to charge through the season, hopefully dominating college football when it begins. After more than a decade, Franklin may finally come close to that elusive National Championship trophy. However, this long wait also throws light on one nagging flaw in the HC’s career. In these 12 years, he has yet to get rid of his problem of failing against ranked teams. This record stands to affect his chances of winning the Big Ten’s Coach of the Year title this season.

Ahmed Fareed, former OSU star Joshua Perry, and Nicole Auerbach discuss the scenario in a July 10 episode of NBC’s Rushing the Field. “Everybody’s talking about what Penn State can do, what they will do. But if they beat Oregon in the regular season and they beat Ohio State in the Horseshoe in the regular season, it’s going to be really compelling,” Perry noted. “It’d be hard to not have him as the Coach of the Year at that point,” he added. James Franklin has won the title already in 2016, nine years ago. That year, he lost to No. 4 Michigan and No. 9 USC. “Until you do it, you haven’t done it,” remarked Fareed.

James Franklin’s worrying record of 4-20 against the top 10 teams in the season continues to push them out of Natty’s contention every season. This season, Franklin has a better chance at going big because of the ease of his schedule. But the Oregon and Ohio State games will be the two checkpoints for him as he advances in the season. They play Oregon early and OSU in the middle of the season. Which means winning these games will be crucial for Penn State to stay at the top in the rankings. “You can’t change the narrative and change the story until you actually get to those games and win it,” Auerbach noted.

Even if those two remain James Franklin’s only losses in the season, that problematic trend will continue. And even if he manages to win the National Championship with those two losses, his reputation for not making against ranked teams will continue to exist.

James Franklin’s run to the playoffs last year is still known for his big losses

Josh Pate laid it all out in his criticism of James Franklin’s inability to win against his worthy competitors. “The doubters would say, ‘They can’t win big games. They can’t get over the hump. They’re just good, but they’ll never be great. All you did last year was lose to Ohio State at home,” he said on Josh Pate’s College Football Show. This was despite James Franklin making it to the playoffs, and his campaign was still defined to some extent by losses to OSU, Oregon, and Notre Dame.

Ohio State and Oregon return as two teams very capable of making it to the playoffs and further. Day has an elite offense and defense in his arsenal, and Oregon comes in as defending champions of the Big 10. Dan Lanning brought down his ranked teams to zero in the regular season in just 3 years. His more seasoned counterpart in Happy Valley is yet to crack that code. However, James Franklin’s 2025 squad is almost always featured above these two in rankings. “There’s inconsistency and a lack of returning production everywhere else in the Big 10,” Pate said in a June 24 appearance on 104-5 The Zone. Franklin has all the cards in his favor this season; he just has to conquer this one trouble to seal the deal.

James Franklin is returning with a team full of experienced players, playing in his system long enough to know the stakes this year. His units are among the best in college football, and there is little reason for him to fail terribly against either of these two programs. The true test of Franklin’s coaching this season will be in his ability to beat teams that are on par with his. Can Franklin up his odds to win the Coach of the Year title once again by getting over this ever-present hump?