Ohio State and UCLA may finish the regular season with records that would normally make a strong case for the College Football Playoff. But losing their starting quarterbacks has complicated matters. Both teams now have to show the selection committee they can still compete at the highest level without the players who led their offenses.
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On ESPN’s College GameDay podcast on October 29, analyst Dan Wetzel asked how the committee should treat an injured contender, wondering how anyone could argue that a 13-0 team is not good enough just because it lost its quarterback. He then questioned whether Ohio State could still get favorable treatment if it stumbled down the stretch. However, Rece Davis was not convinced the two situations are interchangeable, saying the answer depends less on the quarterback’s name and more on what the team can do without him.
“The difference with these backup quarterbacks is you’re going to have a larger sample size in which to make this evaluation fair,” Rece Davis said. “Even if they [Ohio State] drop a game someplace, they’re probably fine. If they can’t get a first down, that’s a problem. Probably the same for UCLA when they play these better defenses on the road. They can’t get a first down, they lose; that’s probably a different evaluation.”
For Ohio State, the problem is especially uncomfortable. Head coach Ryan Day’s team already has a loss, and the Buckeyes are heading into a difficult stretch without Julian Sayin. UCLA, meanwhile, remains unbeaten under head coach Bob Chesney.
But Nico Iamaleava’s season-ending knee injury has left the Bruins relying on Ty Dieffenbach, who had never started an FBS game before this month.
Sayin’s injury has changed Ohio State’s outlook considerably. The quarterback hurt his throwing arm during the fourth quarter of the Buckeyes’ 19-15 victory over Indiana on October 17.
Before leaving, he had completed 15 of 29 passes for 235 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. Ohio State was preparing for the possibility that he would not return this season
“We’re not going to put any timeline on his recovery, but he is out indefinitely,” Day told reporters.
That leaves Luke Fahey and Tavien St. Clair competing for the job ahead of Saturday’s trip to USC. Fahey entered for Sayin against Indiana and missed both of his passing attempts.
Across three appearances this season, he has completed nine of 13 passes for 203 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. St. Clair, though, has attempted only seven passes this year. Because of the inexperience, Day has not ruled out using both QBs against USC.
“I think the guys are up for the challenge and are excited to go play USC,” Day said. “I feel like both guys have embraced it.”
That uncertainty is what makes Wetzel’s question worth asking. Ohio State has already beaten Indiana and built a strong body of work. But what happens if the Buckeyes lose to USC, or another Big Ten opponent like Michigan, while their offense struggles to move the ball?
“If Ohio State stumbles with a couple losses late, that they should still get in?” Wetzel said. “This is just going to be a lot on the line here. It’s going to be really fun, five weeks of Big Ten play.”
Rece Davis brought up the 2023 Florida State controversy, when the unbeaten Seminoles missed the four-team playoff after losing quarterback Jordan Travis. Alabama received a place instead, despite having a loss on their resume.
The decision remains one of the most disputed selections in CFP history. Florida State won the ACC championship with its backup quarterbacks, but its offense struggled badly enough that the committee questioned how competitive the Seminoles would be against the country’s strongest teams.
“Today’s decision by the committee has forever damaged the credibility of the institution that is the College Football Playoff,” FSU said about the CFP decision.
Rece Davis said he still believed the committee made the right call because of how Florida State “looked” without Travis and the 4 “limited spaces.” He then pointed to Ohio State’s 2014 national championship run, which offered a very different example of a team overcoming a quarterback injury.
“But people bring it up: ‘Well, Ohio State got the benefit of the doubt,'” Rece Davis said. “Well, Cardale Jones put 59 on a really good Wisconsin team. That’s something that did not happen in Tallahassee.”
Cardale Jones took over after J.T. Barrett suffered a season-ending injury and led the Buckeyes to a 59-0 demolition of Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game. Ohio State subsequently beat Alabama and Oregon to win the national title.
Davis expects the committee to take much the same approach with Ohio State. A loss down the stretch wouldn’t automatically ruin the Buckeyes’ chances. What matters more is how well they move the ball against tougher opponents and whether the offense can still produce without Sayin.
As for UCLA, its circumstances are different, although the underlying concern is much the same. So, November will give UCLA a better idea of where it stands. The Bruins have road games at Minnesota and Michigan before closing the regular season against USC.
Their unbeaten start gives them some room for error, but Dieffenbach will face a harder test in those matchups. By then, opposing defenses will have had more time to study his tendencies and work out how to defend him.