Not many people saw this coming. Ahead of the ACC Championship game, No. 8 SMU had almost solidified its spot as the No. 3 seed in the new 12-team playoff format. Little did many of us know that No. 17 Clemson is still the ACC Champion, as they had been for eight seasons since 2015! So Rhett Lashlee and the Mustangs not only lost their automatic playoff berth to the Tigers and put their playoff hopes in peril, but an SEC powerhouse is going to be impacted as well. 

SMU now has a scar on their previous 8-0 conference record. At 11-2, the debate now gets real if they should be in the playoffs instead of 9-3 Alabama. Following the upset loss to Dabo Swinney and the Tigers, a disappointed Rhett Lashlee made a statement on a YouTube episode on On The Pony Express – SMU Mustangs on December 8 saying that “it’d be criminal” if the Mustangs drop out of the CFP. He said of the CFP committee, “They don’t care what I say. I don’t have a message. It’d be criminal if we’re not in… It’d be wrong on so many levels, not just our team. It’d be wrong for what college football stands for.”

So now the question is – Does SMU deserve a playoff bid? This chaos would’ve been prevented if the Mustangs continued what they were doing with their nine winning streak. That would have retained their No. 8 spot as Alabama stays fixated at No. 11. But in what was a close 34-31 heartbreak for Lashlee’s team, Clemson secured the ACC’s automatic bid with a final second field goal. And now that the Tigers are officially in the playoff picture, one team needs to buck out. So, Alabama or SMU?

After Clemson’s win, Alabama’s playoff chances drop to 72% in the Allstate playoff predictor. But it’s not to say they’re out of the race. We’ve seen a similar pattern in 2023 when undefeated Georgia lost to Alabama in the SEC Championship game and was left out of the 4-team playoffs. Besides, is we’re going to assess the strength of schedule, Alabama may have more losses but they’ve faced tougher opponents. They’re 3-1 against the top 25 teams while the Mustangs fell 0-2. So is there any hope for SMU?

SMU’s odds of entering the playoffs

No one can deny that having two more wins and one less loss is a better record, as far as wins are concerned. So, SMU is better than Alabama in that sense with their record compared to the Crimson Tide. The committee could also make a case for the Mustangs who reached the conference title game. Besides, their last and only conference loss is a mere 3-point loss, which makes their playoff case more convincing.

But again, as CFP chairman Warde Manuel said on Tuesday, SMU’s conference championship loss to Clemson could “potentially” drop them below Kalen DeBoer and the Crimson Tide. The only thing both teams can do now is wait for the CFP committee’s decision. It could be a long wait for both Lashlee and DeBoer until the finalists are revealed on Selection Sunday at 11 AM CT.