Farmageddon in Dublin sounds like a college football fever dream, right? Two Midwest rivals packing their helmets for Ireland—where Guinness usually takes center stage, not gridiron drama. But beneath the Irish postcards of Dublin and the shamrock clichés, Iowa State’s Rocco Becht is suddenly the guy everyone’s pointing at. He’s the Cyclones’ MVP-turned-suspect, and Kansas State insiders are already predicting he’ll be the downfall of Matt Campbell’s Big 12 hopes before the season even finds its rhythm. Suspense? Yeah, plenty.

Iowa State isn’t rolling into Dublin as underdogs. They’re coming off their best season in school history—11 wins, a first-ever Big 12 Championship appearance, and that chaotic Pop-Tarts Bowl thriller where Becht shredded Miami for 270 yards and 3 scores. Rocco walked away MVP, dipped into Ames legend status, and had fans chanting his name like he was the second coming of Seneca Wallace. And now? Less than a year later, somewhat-respected Big 12 voices (K-State voices, actually) are calling him overrated. Now, that’s some pivot!

On August 17, John Kurtz, Cole Manbeck, and Derek Young jumped on their K-State Wildcats News and Analysis podcast and basically roasted Becht on-air. Manbeck didn’t sugarcoat it either: “Iowa State has this quarterback, Rocco Becht. That might be one of the most overrated quarterbacks in all of college football.” Shots fired. Why? The Cyclones also lost both their star wideouts—Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel—to the NFL Draft, both scooped by the Houston Texans. Higgins’ 1,183 yards and All-America badge? Gone. Noel’s 1,194 yards and program-defining career? Also gone. So yeah, Becht is suddenly playing without his safety nets. In other words, it’s like Steve Rogers without the Super Soldier serum (as per K-State analysts’ logic).

But here’s where K-State’s confidence goes from talk to prophecy. Manbeck rolled out the receipts: Becht’s passing efficiency down 12 points, completion percentage dipping 3%, yards per attempt shrinking from 8.5 to 7.7. Oh, and he tied for sixth-most “turnover-worthy plays” in the country with 20. That’s not just bad luck—that’s straight-up Russian roulette at quarterback. 9 picks and a few fumbles (3) sprinkled in made him look manageable. But 20 plays where defenders just didn’t cash in? That’s football karma waiting to bite. Cole Manbeck summed it up best: “Rocco Becht got away with a ton.”And Kansas State swears Dublin is where that bill finally comes due.

Cole didn’t stop there. He pointed directly at Becht’s track record against K-State: “And just think about the K-State game at the end of the regular season. Three turnover worthy plays in that game and no turnovers. And against K State in 2023, he had a turnover worthy play. Kate didn’t turn him over. So, in his career against the Wildcats, four turnover worthy plays, zero turnovers. You know, Kansas State’s going to get a defensive touchdown against Iowa State. That streak ends here with the turnover worthy plays.” His bold call? Zashon (pronounced ZAY-shawn) Rich will snag one, take it to the crib, and flip the scoreboard. “Kansas State’s going to win this game. They’re going to dominate. Absolutely dominate. They’re going to win 31 to 24.” 31-24 might not be absolute domination, but you gotta respect the conviction.

Here’s the twist, though. Becht has actually owned the Wildcats. In 2023, Iowa State rolled into Manhattan and dropped 42 points in a track meet, including a 79-yard bomb from Becht. A year later in Ames, the Cyclones made it back-to-back wins with Becht throwing two scores and running for another. Those weren’t lucky wins; those were program-shifting Ws that killed K-State’s Big 12 title hopes. So while insiders call him a ticking turnover machine, the box score says he’s undefeated against Kansas State.

But when you peel it back, Iowa State’s margin for error is razor-thin. Becht’s 3,505 passing yards and 25 touchdowns in 2024 look like a quarterback ascending. Yet behind the curtain, the inconsistencies glare like a neon sign. He tossed nine interceptions, fumbled three times, and thrived on near-misses. Now strip away Higgins and Noel, his dynamic duo, and suddenly Becht is throwing to unproven wideouts on foreign soil against a defense already licking its chops. If Iowa State wants to prove Farmageddon isn’t just another Irish pub fight, Becht has to show he can grow past habits that nearly sank him before.

The pre-season winds are favoring Chris Klieman

While Iowa State sorts out if Becht’s boom-or-bust tendencies travel well, Kansas State is already being penciled in as playoff material. FOX Sports didn’t blink before slotting them into the new 12-team College Football Playoff, predicting a Big 12 title to go with it. Their logic? Simple. Avery Johnson’s back, the defense is mean, and the Wildcats don’t face Arizona State in the regular season. Translation: their path is wide open.

And Avery Johnson isn’t just “back.” He’s quietly becoming a household name. The man tossed 25 touchdowns last season, the most in program history, while adding another 605 rushing yards and seven scores on the ground. The man’s dual-threat game gives defenses nightmares, and when you stack that against a Cyclone secondary that’s still figuring itself out, it feels like a mismatch brewing. If Rocco Becht’s the Cyclone X-factor, Johnson is the Wildcat’s cheat code.

The metrics back it up, too. ESPN’s SP+ ranking dropped Kansas State to 15.3, good for No. 18 nationally and ahead of nearly every Big 12 competitor. Vegas isn’t shy either, giving K-State +550 odds to take home the conference crown. When your numbers, quarterback, and depth chart are all trending in the same direction, it’s hard not to smell playoff potential.

But Klieman knows better than to let hype balloon heads in Manhattan. At Big 12 Media Day, he kept it humble: “You’ve gotta have your A game every week… stay humble, stay hungry, and have that chip on your shoulder.” It’s classic coach-speak, but you can hear the subtext—don’t choke in Dublin. With the Wildcats not playing Arizona State, this opener against Iowa State becomes even more crucial. It’s their biggest statement chance until December, and Klieman knows that plane ride home will feel a lot shorter if they can finally pick off Becht and plant their flag in Ireland.