Mother Nature has crashed the Rose Bowl party, and it’s definitely putting a damper on the excitement. Pasadena has been experiencing heavy rainfall over the past few days. And forecasts predicted heavy rain and thunderstorms throughout New Year’s Day, extending from the morning into the afternoon.

Due to safety concerns, officials canceled the on-field pregame show for the 2026 CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game, presented by Prudential.

As a result, both university marching bands stayed in the stands for their performances instead of taking the field. The Tournament of Roses President, Grand Marshal, their families, and the Rose Court also skipped the traditional on-field walk and remained outside the field, sitting on the stands. Indiana’s Marching Hundred even performed the national anthem from their seats.

Now the big question is simple: just how much will the wet, sloppy field factor into the matchup between Indiana and Alabama?

The rain finally let up a few hours before kickoff, and the tarp came off the field. But it’s hard to imagine this one not getting a little messy, especially early on. With the turf still damp, expect a slick football and slippery footing, which puts ball security front and center. Offenses will likely lean on their ground attack and offensive lines to grind things out rather than take too many risks.

Some around the game think that plays right into Indiana’s hands. Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black are leading a physical run game for the Hoosiers. Special teams could also get weird in these conditions, with slippery kicks and risky returns making that phase far less predictable. On top of that, the Hoosiers have already played in bad weather this season. So they have an edge. They closed out a 38–13 win over Michigan State in a heavy downpour back on Oct. 18. Alabama? Not so much.

“We haven’t played a lot in those elements this season,” Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer admitted. “You try to prepare with a wet ball, snapping it, catching it, throwing it, but in the end, you’ve just got to adapt.”

On paper, the run game tilts toward Indiana. The Hoosiers own the nation’s third-best run defense, giving up just 77.6 rushing yards per game. Alabama, meanwhile, ranks 120th nationally in rushing offense. The unit averages only 109.9 yards on the ground. In a wet, grind-it-out game, that gap could matter even more.

Rain isn’t the Bama’s only threat

Apart from the rain, national analyst Joel Klatt warns Kalen DeBoer that apart from the rain, the Tides’ structural issue can be a major hindrance in their Rose Bowl game. Klatt essentially argues that Alabama’s path to upsetting top‑seeded Indiana is dangerously narrow. Klatt’s first concern is Alabama’s inability to run the football at a Playoff-caliber level. He flatly states he doesn’t “have a ton of faith” in their ground game and notes that the Tide “just don’t run the football well.”

It’ll force them to lean heavily on Simpson’s elite passing attack. The evidence is brutal. Against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, Alabama finished with -3 rushing yards on 16 carries. The unit averaged -0.2 yards per attempt with no RB able to make a rush of more than five yards. Klatt then adds in the pass‑protection woes. It significantly increases the run-game problem rather than solving it. Even in the win over Oklahoma, he notes that the offensive line was hardly dominant.

Most of the success came from Simpson’s ability to avoid pressure, play quickly, and essentially protect himself. If Indiana’s front can consistently squeeze the pocket, Simpson will be asked to replicate the same thing against a better, more solid defense. And then there’s the weather. With rain in the forecast, he points out that a team that “can’t run the football all that well and has to throw the football” is inherently vulnerable when moisture becomes a factor.