The Buckeyes are reloading for the 2026 season with a Heisman finalist quarterback and 17 transfer players. The main narrative emerging from the spring practices is how Ryan Day’s team can right the wrongs that led them to miss the conference championship and the natty. But the sportsbooks aren’t buying that Ohio State will reach the highs of its undefeated regular season last year.

The disrespect for Ohio State is clear in the Big 10 landscape, where sportsbooks have set the win total at just 9.5, a full game behind Oregon and on par with Penn State. The team up North is projected to have a win total of 8.5, similar to Lincoln Riley’s USC. However, the main point is that the Buckeyes could miss the playoffs if they finish with the record projected by the sportsbooks.

The 2026 season will be the third year with 12 teams in the postseason, and to date, no team has made it to the playoffs with a 9-3 regular-season record. Whereas, with 10 wins, Ohio State realistically can push through, but we have seen teams like Notre Dame (in 2025) excluded despite winning 10 regular-season games. The projection doesn’t take into account the regular-season consistency the Buckeyes have shown over the last two decades.

Ohio State has hit the 10-win mark a whopping 18 times in the last 20 years, and on the rare occasions it didn’t, poor play wasn’t the reason. The Buckeyes finished with a 6-7 record in the 2011 season under Luke Fickell, who served as interim head coach after Jim Tressel was fired following the Tattoogate scandal. Apart from that, 2020 was a Covid-19-shortened season, and winning 10+ regular-season games was out of the question.

Ohio State has remained dominant every season; it hasn’t lost more than two games since 2011. That’s a 14-year unbroken winning streak. But Sportsbooks’ verdict looks to be driven by the Buckeyes’ 2026 schedule. The team will face Texas, Indiana, and USC on the road, while it will have tough home games against Oregon and Michigan. Ryan Day’s 2026 is one of the toughest in the country and the hardest in the Big 10.

“Ohio State hasn’t lost more than two games since 2011. If there was ever a year for that streak to end, this is it,” CBS Sports’ Cody Nagel predicted. “The Buckeyes face more hurdles than usual with one of the nation’s toughest schedules.” Despite the doubts, Ohio State has repeatedly shown it can withstand tough schedules.

In 2016, Ohio State’s schedule was one of the toughest in the Big 10 and 15th in the country. Yet the team recorded 11 wins along with a CFP semifinal berth. In 2012, in Urban Meyer’s first year, Ohio State executed a perfect regular season, despite betting lines predicting it to win 9 games. So, the only times Ohio State Buckeyes football failed to reach 10 wins came when scandals or unforeseen circumstances like COVID-19 plagued the team. Can Ohio State exceed expectations again?

Can Ohio State and Ryan Day beat the odds?

Ohio State’s roster was hit hard by the transfer portal, losing 32 players and creating uncertainty at key positions. WR Quincy Porter and Mylan Graham left along with safety Faheem Delane. Whereas DL Jarquez Carter went to Miami, and RB James Peoples made Penn State his new home. Due to attrition, some positions are quite uncertain.

The biggest gap Ohio State will face will be in its WR room. Apart from Jeremiah Smith, there’s no solid replacement for Carnell Tate, Quincy Porter, or Mylan Graham yet. On top of it, OSU has a new WRs coach in Cortez Hankton after Brian Hartline left for a USF head coaching job. Surely, the replacements like Brandon Inniss, freshman Chris Henry Jr., and Brock Boyd seem exciting. But their inexperience remains a significant hurdle.

The tight end position is also depleted, and Ryan Day brought in two transfer TEs to make up for his losses. Sophomore Nate Roberts can start at the position, but he played sporadically in 2025, accumulating just 30 yards.

Ryan Day is now tasked with integrating 51 new faces into the program, and he admitted the same. “There’s a lot to look at and figure out,” Day said.