The hunger to chase relevance often takes a hard toll on people. The same may be true for Sacramento State’s Luke Wood, as the $975 million target he once envisioned now feels increasingly unrealistic. After paying $23 million to MAC to enter the conference and agreeing to pay for other teams’ flights to California, as MAC is based in the Midwest, the TV revenue was the only thing giving them hope. But it turns out that’s just a lousy claim based on a random LinkedIn post.

Sacramento State’s move to FBS is going to bring them a profit of $975 million, and that’s just intensifying the skepticism. So, to know from where the huge number came in, FOIAball’s David Covucci dug into the reports that created this estimation. They requested a public records request from Collegiate Consulting and uncovered the similar reports they created for Louisville and Wyoming.

Then, reporter Richard Johnson later spoke to the firm CEO, Russell Wright, who accepted how the school stretched the original numbers. But the firm regularly gives out massive numbers to other schools, too; like for Louisville, it was “Over the course of an athletic year, Louisville athletics provides a total average annual economic impact of $1.28 billion, and over the three-year analysis, a total impact of $3.84 billion.”

After the claim, the firm lowered its valuation, and then again they reclaimed their estimated number on X, saying, “We stand by the study projecting a $194M year-one economic impact/valuation for their initial MAC FB season in fall 2026, with the potential for five-year projections approaching $972M (194.4 X 5).”

That’s where the problem starts: teams pay a hefty amount to get that data, like Louisville paid $50,000, but what’s shocking is that all these numbers come in from a random LinkedIn post.

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Now, Covucci’s reports dig into the entire LinkedIn mess and how exactly the firm decided its worth just for being on TV. So, the study uses advertising value equivalency to calculate the number, even when the Institute for Public Relations said it didn’t exist as a measurement tool back in 2003. So, the firm first counts how many people watch the game, then they guess how much it would cost to show ads to that many people, and then later they multiply the number by 3.

So, instead of giving the exact number, they give three times more. Because of that, it gave out shocking numbers, like back in 2022, a regular-season game against Florida State was worth $300 million, and it also claimed that the Wyoming Cowboys vs. Red Raiders game was worth $61,059,825 in value. But why just multiply it by 3 and not other numbers? Because it came from a LinkedIn post.

“This section of the study examines the impact of media viewership… using a LinkedIn Insight Director’s framework for how to measure the value of media exposure.” The introduction also had, “Editorial is a third-party opinion, so the value of publicity is deemed three times that of a paid advertisement.”

When FOIAball searched that quote, it gave them a 2018 LinkedIn post written by the Malaysia and Emerging Markets Insight Director at Insentia. That post, “How To Measure The Value of Media Exposure,” had almost the same wording the firm uses, but it actually warned people about AVE’s increasing values. This perfectly explains the skepticism George Wrighster had over their entire move.

Sacramento State’s future looks dark

Luke Wood might be preparing for major economic growth, projecting a total of $975 million over five years. This forecast includes a broadcast valuation growing to $675 million and game day revenue rising to $46 million.

But the reality stands far away from it. Midweek MAC home games start early in the evening, which can give them a smaller crowd compared to later-starting games for NBA and MLB games in Sacramento.

Now, the school’s big money will come from how many people are actually going to watch their games on TV. But let’s be real, with top games clashing, the chances of watching their game are way less than expected. Because they are spending so much, even analyst George Weighster III thinks they have another intention behind the move.

“No way, Sac State has no intentions of staying in the MAC long term,” Wrighster said on X. “They will be hoping to get a Pac-12 or Mountain West invite next.” This is the type of deal SMU made to get into the ACC. It worked. And now look at the trajectory of the program.”

So, now let’s wait and see how things turn around for Sacramento State.