It hadn’t been that old news when programs wanted to step inside the high-stakes SEC conference. However, with the new 12-team College Football Playoff bracket, the setup is a dream for the top four teams, which Georgia is currently enjoying. They get a cushy first-round bye, skipping the grind of the opener. However, Kalen DeBoer’s Alabama is still trying to make its way to the top, and if it fails, the SEC title chase becomes redundant in the coming years.

Alabama is sitting at No.10, waiting for its next two games against Eastern Illinois and Auburn. The real roadblock is obviously the Tigers at Jordan-Hare because they don’t have much dominance in that area. But if somehow Bama snags a win from the Tigers, they ought to get a jump up in the rankings, replacing Georgia at No.4. But analyst Josh Pate fears what if it doesn’t happen. “Bama’s at 10, but they still control their own destiny and whatnot. So, they beat Auburn. If they do, they go to Atlanta and they win the SEC championship. I had assumed it was a foregone conclusion,” Pate said in a discussion with Colin Cowherd on the November 20th episode of the Cowherd podcast. 

“But it feels like there’s this sentiment out there that no, you can’t jump them up all the way to the top four just cuz they won their conference. And I’m like, no, you can’t afford not to.” Picture this: Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, and Georgia already booked spots in the quarterfinals. That means they skipped the chaos of the first round. After that, teams ranked 5 to 8 will play, and teams ranked from 9 to 12 will play in the first round of the CFP, with the higher seeds hosting the lower ones. And that’s exactly why Georgia and Ole Miss are sitting tension-free. “I was just in Athens, Georgia, last week. Those people have little interest in playing in the SEC championship game,” Pate added.

“They’re totally happy where they are. They’re totally happy with the five or six. They feel the same way at Ole Miss. They’re totally happy not going.” The problem lies with Alabama not getting what it deserves. Alabama’s path to the SEC Championship is clear-cut if it beats Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Since Alabama already owns a crucial head-to-head win over Georgia, it holds the tiebreaker if both finish with the same conference record. That means a victory against Auburn not only boosts their record but locks up the SEC West crown.

So if that happens, wouldn’t it necessarily put Alabama in the CFP’s top-4 placement, replacing the Bulldogs? The Tide’s playoff chances remain at 62.9% according to ESPN’s playoff probability. But if that win doesn’t push them into a top-four playoff spot, it will still land them solidly somewhere in the top 10.

That means Bama needs to play another game to secure its place in the playoffs. On the other hand, the Bulldogs are in the mix of earning the first-round bye with a 9-1 record and No.4 spot. They get extra rest, less chance of an upset, and a chance to recharge for the tougher battles ahead. “You’ve already got people openly questioning what the value is in playing for the conference title,” Josh Pate stated. “If your champion does not secure a first-round buy, you have essentially invalidated the entire existence of conference championships within this overall playoff framework.” 

This unfairness can create havoc in the conference with the title chase getting cancelled in the coming years if not now. However, it’s not all green lights ahead for Kalen DeBoer and Co. just yet.

No guaranteed passes for Kalen DeBoer and Alabama

Kalen DeBoer and the Bama are currently having a bitter-sweet relationship with the CFP committee. Alabama isn’t getting the benefit of the doubt their past dominance might’ve earned. After the Crimson Tide’s shocking two-point loss to Oklahoma, Alabama tumbled six spots to No. 10 in the playoff rankings. But that’s when Kalen DeBoer’s squad gets to know its place in the mix. Even with their win over Georgia, Alabama’s path is hanging by a thread in the new 12-team playoff format.

Alabama now faces pressure like never before. Beating Auburn in that Iron Bowl is crucial. But even that’s not a guarantee for a playoff bye or a smooth path forward. The committee’s rankings reflect not just wins and losses but the quality of those games. The heavy weight of Alabama’s 31-17 loss to Florida State was a buzzkiller. The team, now sitting at 5-5, dragged them down significantly.

Plus, their recent loss to Oklahoma, despite outgaining them by nearly 200 yards, was a tough hit to their résumé. This feels like a reality check for Alabama fans used to top-tier dominance. The CFP committee’s chair, Hunter Yurachek, basically admitted as much, noting the impact of these losses weighed heavily in rankings. Meanwhile, the bubble is thick, and teams like BYU are creeping close at No. 11, ready to capitalize on any slip.