By now, you might already have an inkling of why Billy Napier is still at Florida. The coach wrapped up year 3 with an 8-5 record, better than his first two seasons (6-7 and 5-7). But still, it’s not the kind of stuff that gets Gator Nation throwing tailgates in celebration. By mid-2024, his seat was already scorching. Rumors were flying so fast, and insiders were whispering when, not if, the HC would be fired. Still, he’s here….

If Florida were to fire Billy Napier, his contract buyout would be $27.1M. And that is too much of a monster to wrestle with, even for a well-off athletic department like UF. But this time around, it’s going to be a make-or-break season. So, listen to what Brian Smith had to say about the matter during his appearance on Locked on College Football on May 23.

“From what I’ve heard, some of the boosters might be a little weary of bailing Billy out like they did last year,” he told Seth McLaughlin. “The money they were going to buy him out with, they decided to spend on NIL last year. That’s why the class finished like it did.” Just look at Florida’s 2025 recruiting class. It ranks No. 10 in the nation with 27 recruits. But the 2026 cycle is looking starkly different. 

Just think about it. Billy Napier’s buyout is 85% of his remaining contract, running through 2029. Florida would have had to cough up 50% of it within 30 days and the rest in scheduled chunks. And yeah, boosters helped fund NIL instead of firing him. Sounds like a last desperate chance for him to salvage his career in 2025, right? Because for the 2026 class, they just have only two commits. 

“This is a slow roll class because the only chance they have is to get to the season and win more than I think they will because their schedule again is ridiculous but they do that, they’ll flip some kids,” Brian Smith added. “But I think their fans are going to be moaning and groaning rightfully so because they’ve got a really good visit list all the way through June. And they’re not gonna get near the commitments they should because kids don’t believe Billy’s gonna be there.”

Seven important OVs, including 5-stars Felix Ojo, Chauncey Kennon, and Calvin Russell. If Florida wins early, maybe they’ll land some. And there’s hope for Billy Napier, especially after DJ Lagway flashed promise in his limited action in 2025. 

Can DJ Lagway save Billy Napier’s job?

CBS analyst Josh Pate said of Billy Napier’s 2024 season—“I can’t believe he survived that.” And yeah, it’s thanks to DJ Lagway, who flipped the script, winning all six games under his name with 1,915 yards and 12 scores. He gave his HC a chance to coach another day. But even competitor SEC coaches can see the pressure he’s sitting on this year. “This is a massive year for Napier,” they said. “He survived because of the changing politics of the game and his buyout, but it ended up working out last season. Now he can show positive momentum with this group and start competing for the postseason.”

And yeah, these anonymous coaches are also high on DJ Lagway and his chance to save Billy Napier’s job. “Lagway and that offensive line are legit enough to bring back a true ‘Florida offense,’” they said. “If they can be in the hunt for a playoff bid and start scoring points like those old Gator programs, I think he’ll be off the hot seat for a while.” There’s a belief, but it’s conditional.

Florida’s got a gauntlet for a schedule in 2025, facing teams like LSU, Miami, Tennessee, Georgia, and FSU. If DJ Lagway delivers and Billy Napier somehow finds 10 wins, he might just stick around long enough to turn the corner. But if he loses early to Miami this season, all the buyout math might not save him next time.