Did North Carolina win or lose when they handed the keys to one of the greatest NFL HCs of all time? When Bill Belichick stepped in to replace Mack Brown with a $10M annual salary, it turned everyone’s heads because it’s a 6x Super Bowl champ coach with 302 regular-season wins and 17 division titles we’re talking about. But while he may have done it all in the pro league, the problem is that college football isn’t played the way the NFL is. At least, not on the business side of things. 

Just months into this bold football experiment, Bill Belichick is already feeling the heat. The latest came from June 12’s episode of Josh Pate’s College Football Show. When a viewer asked if “Bill Belichick will actually ever win at North Carolina,” Josh Pate fired off a reality check.

Interpreting that question into a playoff or conference title conversation, he replied, “No, I don’t think he is. I don’t think he is at all. And I don’t think he should be expected to.” If you’re like anyone who thinks his $10M salary is supposed to win playoffs, listen to what the analyst had to say—“I don’t care how much they pay him. I’m going based off what North Carolina as a program has been capable of.” And he’s got a point. 

Just because a legendary coach steps in doesn’t magically turn a program into a playoff-caliber team. This is especially true for UNC, which hasn’t won 10 games since 2015. This isn’t Tuscaloosa; it’s not even Tallahassee. And Bill Belichick, for all his rings, can’t rewrite decades of underwhelming tradition overnight. “They’re about to run the 33rd NFL franchise there. That’s what they’re saying….they can’t say that publicly for legal reasons, but that’s the messaging.” With Freddie Kitchens and others, Bill Belichick’s staff brings 240 years of NFL experience. That sounds good, but Pate is not buying it.

“For all the people talking about how much Bill Belichick is about to teach college football, I’m of the opinion college football may be about to teach Bill Belichick a lot more than he’s going to teach college football,” Josh Pate added. “Because you may think if you mastered the pro game for all those years, if you and I believe this, if you are good enough where you could be a position coach in any room in the organization, then certainly college football shouldn’t be a great big challenge for you. Well, from a strict coaching, the game perspective, it won’t be.”

Bill Belichick’s brilliance on the field isn’t being questioned. He could still teach a masterclass in defensive disguises and situational awareness. But college football isn’t just about Xs and Os. “In this level of football, you got to go compete for [a player],” Josh Pate added. “You don’t get to wait and draft him, and then they have to come play for you for a minimum of four years. You got to go beat Clemson for him. You got to go beat Georgia.” Now, that’s a whole different game. And at 73, he’s now the oldest head coach in college football, older than any three of his starters combined, as Pate quipped.

While Nick Saban proved age isn’t a deal-breaker, he lived college football. Bill Belichick is jumping into it cold. Still, it’s not all doom and gloom in Tar Heel country.

Bill Belichick gets the softest landing in Power Four

For all his spicy remarks, let’s dig out a March episode on what Josh Pate thinks about how Bill Belichick will fare in his debut CFB season in 2025. He declared that the new UNC HC “inherited the easiest schedule in the conference, maybe the easiest schedule in the country in the Power Four.”

“North Carolina could not have gift-wrapped Bill Belichick an easier route,” he said. “If Bill Belichick himself was told you have to make your schedule, he would have made it harder than this because he would have felt guilty if he made this schedule himself.”

North Carolina dodges five of the ACC’s top six preseason favorites. They have only one Tier 1-3 rated opponent. For comparison, Syracuse draws seven. Bill Belichick opens with TCU at home and a notable non-conference game against UCF in Week 3. Conference foes include Clemson, Syracuse, Duke, and NC State, which are manageable. So no, Belichick won’t have to wrestle with Georgia or FSU out of the gate.

But as Pate warned, “That doesn’t mean he’s going to do anything; they may still be 5-7 for all I know. But if they’re going to shock the world, they’ve got the schedule to do it.”

The NFL legend’s entrance into college football is a must-see drama. But don’t be surprised if Bill Belichick turns UNC around. “We know we have a long way to go,” Bill Belichick said. “But I think these guys have a really good future in front of them individually and collectively.”