Arch Manning never asked for the kind of pressure that comes with being the expected guy to lead Texas to a playoff season. But his famous last name is both a boon and a bane. Because with that, the former 5-star QB was already the anointed one before he ever took a varsity snap, with highlight reels popping out even from middle school. Before even starting a full season under Steve Sarkisian, he’s already projected as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. And as the 2025 season looms closer with him finally bearing the QB1 tag, expectations couldn’t be higher. 

Just listen to SEC Mike and Cousin Shane’s take on Arch Manning on That SEC Football Podcast on June 18. While he thinks it’s very likely for him to return next year, Mike is apprehensive about whether Texas goes 11-1 or 10-2 this year. After all, they lead ESPN’s FPI as the best college football team heading into 2025. “I feel like the expectations are really high, and it’s so easy to overlook because he’s a Manning and he’s been living in the spotlight,” Shane said. He also threw in the names of DJ Lagway and LaNorris Sellers, who would earn credit if they get to the playoffs or win the national championship. But it’s a different scenario for the Longhorns QB.

“I feel like Arch Manning is expected to take this team to a playoff and expected to—maybe not this year but—win another national title down there,” he said. “All that goes on Arch Manning’s shoulders, and if he doesn’t perform, then let’s say it is 9-3. I think a lot of Longhorn fans would believe that would be a failure this season.” Is that a long shot for a QB who has the legacy but minimal starting experience? 

After sitting behind Quinn Ewers for two seasons, Arch Manning takes the wheel of a Texas squad that’s coming off a 13-3 campaign and a College Football Playoff berth. But with the Longhorns now fully embedded in the SEC, the real tests begin. To add to the pressure, he leads Bleacher Nation’s 2025 Heisman odds at +700, ahead of Garrett Nussmeier (+800) and Cade Klubnik (+900). But his sample size is still thin.

Arch Manning just completed 66% of his 90 pass attempts in 2024 for 969 yards and nine TDs. The 6’4, 225-pounder also added 108 rushing yards and four scores. And that’s not enough to silence the doubters. One of the biggest pieces of feedback came from former Georgia QB Aaron Murray. “If you are so good and everyone has you projected No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft come 2026, why in the hell are you not playing above a seventh-round quarterback?” he said on SiriusXM. 

Even the media is divided on this issue. The American-Statesman slots him as a top-3 SEC QB. ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg ranks him 12th nationally. PFF didn’t even include Texas in its top 10 QB rooms. 247Sports has him at No. 3. It’s a tug-of-war between hype and hard proof. But if there’s one thing everyone would agree on, it’s the importance of winning two crucial matchups this season. 

Arch Manning receives a 2-game ultimatum

While the season opener vs. defending champs Ohio State on August 30 is juicy, it’s not really a make-or-break. The real crucible is Oklahoma and Texas A&M. Of course, Georgia is in the picture, but it’s those two particular games that hold weight. “Right now, your two rivals, you are ahead of them. I think staying ahead, that’s one of the biggest things in all of college football, so that’s why I got Oklahoma two and Texas A&M three,” Mike said. 

The Red River Showdown and the rekindled Lone Star rivalry aren’t just rivalry games. They’re reputation tests. Win them, and Arch Manning solidifies himself as the guy who took the Longhorns above their bitter foes. Lose, and suddenly the whispers get louder about whether he was ever really that guy. As Mike added, “If you slip up in either one of those, you don’t got those bragging rights, and again, you can overcome it, but I think those games are critical.”

So, as Arch Manning steps into the fire, the stakes are clear. This isn’t just about carrying a famous last name. It’s about proving that the hype was earned and the spotlight isn’t too bright.