The Longhorns’ head coach has recently graced the cover of the summer 2025 issue of Dave Campbell’s Texas Football, with the cover story “SARK: Rebuilding Texas His Way.” Steve Sarkisian, currently in his fifth year, has a record of 38 wins and 17 losses as the head coach at Texas and 84-52 overall. Change and hype have dominated the offseason. Quinn Ewers, the starting quarterback last year, is heading to the NFL, and Arch Manning, the most highly discussed sophomore college football player, has taken over the offense keys. Manning’s actions are under scrutiny from spring camp to late-night Twitter arguments regarding his future in the NFL—some even ridicule him to the Cleveland Browns.

The program is on a high following consecutive College Football Playoff bids and a No. 1 class, with NIL contracts and a business like mentality that’s making waves throughout the SEC. How are the Longhorns recovering from last year, then? Sarkisian’s team is treading that delicate balance between hype and stress—each snap, each play, each cover of a magazine a reminder in Austin that only a championship will suffice. But it’s bold prediction time in college football, and Josh Pate’s email box is abuzz with crazy opinions from fans everywhere.

In a recent episode of the Josh Pate’s College Football Show, Pate begins with reading a message from Braden in Austin, Texas. The forecast: Texas wins the national championship… but not the SEC. To which Josh pate responded, “You know Texas has the number one odds to win the SEC. They have the number one odds to win the whole thing and a lot of people are upset about that and if you are, I’ve got good news for you, you can bet on Texas to miss the playoff.” Bookmakers list them as favorites to win the SEC, with odds ranging from +240 to +250 at most books, followed by Georgia and Alabama.

And not just that, but Texas is also the betting favorite to capture the entire national championship, with ESPN’s Football Power Index bestowing them with the most favorable chance of the title and sportsbooks posting them from +500 to +550 to trim down the nets. There is also a precedent for upsets. Texas has had back-to-back playoff runs, but not haven’t won a national championship since 2005. And with a heavy schedule—Ohio State, Georgia, Oklahoma, Texas A&M—there are ample opportunities for Texas to fall. Texas’s over/under for regular season victories is 9.5, meaning that even if they reach that number, a couple of losses can still leave them on the outside looking in if things go wrong.

Pate also adds, “They could go to Atlanta, lose to Georgia like they did last year. Still make it in and make a run. Ohio State like I said just did this. This will probably coincide with Arch Manning peaking late instead of early um you know it’s tough to predict outright the exact winner of the thing.” Texas battles hard, but the Bulldogs could squeak them out in a nail-biter, just as they did in the 22-19 overtime thriller that occurred in 2024. That loss burns, but guess what? Due to the new 12-team playoff, Texas is still in the running. It’s not merely a crazy theory, either. Ohio State just showed you can miss the conference championship game and still go on to make a deep run in the playoffs.

The Buckeyes stayed home while Michigan competed for the Big Ten title, but Ohio State still got into the playoff, and some years they’ve even made it to the final. The same reasoning holds true for Texas. Now, imagine Arch Manning, the golden boy quarterback, starting slowly for the season. Perhaps he’s still finding his legs, or perhaps the offense is still finding its footing. But as the weeks go by, he begins to gel—big plays, clutch drives, the kind of things that appear on highlight reels. So, sure, calling the very winner is hard. But with the new playoff system, Texas can lose in Atlanta, still get into the dance, and catch fire with a late-season run to the title game.

The spotlight shines on Arch Manning

Texas is flying high, but everyone is watching Arch Manning as he takes center stage. Winning the SEC or going on a playoff push is one thing, but living up to the pressure that comes with being the face of Texas football? That’s a different ball game altogether. Not everyone believes he’s ready for the stage—and that’s the big worry.

Steve Sarkisian is being cautioned about. J.D. PicKell, a top college football analyst, as he didn’t pull punches when it comes to Manning. He awarded Manning a pressure rating of 9.4 out of 10, and indicated that number could be even higher. Why? Because it’s not about the X’s and O’s. It’s about the heft of the Manning name, the heritage of Texas football, and the fact that Arch is filling in for Quinn Ewers, who took the Longhorns to consecutive playoff semifinals.

But it’s not only the fans and the media. Even opposing coaches are fueling the fire. LSU’s Brian Kelly appeared on ESPN and made one thing abundantly clear: experience counts. He explained that though Manning is undoubtedly gifted, he hasn’t faced the type of adversity that comes with being the full-time starter in the SEC. Now, here’s some good news for Arch and the Longhorns: he’s not alone. Texas is stacked, with a potent running attack featuring CJ Baxter and Quintrevion Wisner, and an offensive line that should be more than capable. The defense, PicKell says, could be the nation’s best, providing Manning some room to breathe as he becomes comfortable. Yet again, the question remains—can Arch keep his cool when everything that can go wrong does? Will he be able to bounce back after a tough loss or a bad game?