Penn State is making history with its first College Football Playoff appearance, but the real buzz? It’s their unexpected first-round opponent—SMU. Yep, the Mustangs. The same team that clawed its way into the No. 11 seed despite a gut-wrenching loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship. Now, SMU’s heading into the lion’s den—Happy Valley, under the lights, against one of the sport’s biggest heavyweights. The stakes are massive, the odds are long, and SMU? Rhett Lashlee‘s squad is under so much pressure.

On the latest episode of the Big Ten Network, college football analysts Jake Bu-t and Adam Breneman break down college football playoff games that started with Penn State and SMU. The Mustangs lean heavily on their dynamic offense with quarterback Kevin Jennings and running back Brashad Smith. Moreover, their schedule strength, ranked 57th compared to Penn State’s 30th, could be a concern when entering the spotlight.

“I feel better about Penn State going into the playoff after the Big 10 championship game than I did before. I think if you’re James Franklin, you would much rather be concerned about your defense than you would be concerned about your offense going into the first-round playoff game with SMU,” Breneman said.

Rhett Lashlee’s squad earned the No. 11 seed despite falling short in the ACC Championship against Clemson. For many fans, their season was a testament to grit and resilience, fighting their way to a 12-2 record in their first year as ACC members. But Breneman, known for his unfiltered takes, thinks SMU’s underdog charm might not hold up against Penn State in the first round of the playoffs.

“In that game, I saw Drew Allar, who made some big-time plays. He made a couple of mistakes. The interception early in the game was a pivotal play. Almost got returned for a touchdown that really changed the game, I thought. But Penn State’s offense put the points on the board and dominated in the trenches in this game. So I thought that was encouraging to see,” Breneman said.

As per the current buzz, Drew Allar’s standout game against Oregon could push him towards leaving Penn State early to enter the big league. Although Penn State lost 37-45 to the Ducks, all showcased his potential, finishing 20 of 39 passes for 226 yards and three touchdowns. He did have two costly interceptions, one that directly hit an Oregon touchdown and another that sealed the game, but his late-game show was enough to grab the attention of NFL scouts.

Moving forward, Jake Bu-t expressed his excitement for the Penn State community as they gear up for the playoff game against SMU. He highlighted how special the atmosphere is likely to be, especially with a noon kickoff on TNT, even if he’s unsure about the timing. Reflecting on Penn State’s offensive performance, Jake seemed optimistic, saying that if they can carry that momentum into the matchup, he likes their chances. In his view, Penn State matches up well against SMU and has what it takes to come out on top.

Penn State will crush SMU in the first-round game

You know that several odds also suggest the same thing these analysts have said. As per the money line, Penn State holds -350 odds compared to SMU’s +270 to win this game. Added to the spread, which gave -8.5 odds to Penn State.

The Mustangs had a wild ride this season. They started unranked, clawed their way to No. 25 by week 7, and then started a nine-game win streak. Wins over ranked opponents like Louisville and Pitt put them in the playoff picture. But it’s Penn State. In Happy Valley. With 100,000 fans in whiteout mode. Especially facing a strong offense.