The latest College Football Playoff rankings dropped Tuesday night. And it once again stirred up the controversy surrounding Notre Dame and Miami. But this time, there might actually be some legitimate hope for Mario Cristobal.

Alabama jumped over Notre Dame, pushing the Irish down to No. 10. Miami sits at No. 12. So, just one spot now separates the two teams who share identical 10-2 records. This week’s shuffle might’ve inadvertently created the exact scenario Miami needs to sneak into the playoffs.​ Josh Pate laid out the path. And it starts with a question that seems impossible to answer.

“If both of these teams (Notre Dame and Miami) are ranked where they are, and neither of them play this weekend, how could one ever jump the other one?” Pate asked on his show. “The answer is it shouldn’t happen. The answer, part B, is that Miami should have already been ahead of Notre Dame, in my opinion. But part C is, I think it can still happen because of the ACC doomsday scenario that we have telegraphed on this show for, like, a month. We’ve been talking about this as a possibility, but we’re here now. 7-5 Duke could win the ACC Saturday. 

And if they do, they’re not going to the playoffs because they won’t be one of the five highest-ranked conference champs. So you’ll have the SEC’s champ, the Big 10’s champ, the Big 12’s champ. You’ll get two G5s in there, and then it’ll just be up to seven more spots for at-large teams. And I believe if Brigham Young loses that Big 12 championship game, I think they would remove themselves from being the last remaining team between Notre Dame and Miami. And I think that would just put Notre Dame and Miami head-to-head on Selection Sunday. And the committee would have to look at that if Duke wins the ACC championship game, the committee would have to look at that and say, “Well, we either put Miami in or we don’t put an ACC team in.” 

The critical piece of Pate’s theory involves BYU losing the Big 12 championship game, which would eliminate the last buffer between Notre Dame and Miami in the rankings. BYU currently sits at No. 11, sandwiched directly between the two rivals. If the Cougars fall to Texas Tech and drop out of contention, suddenly Notre Dame at 10 and Miami at 12 would be right next to each other, competing for what could be the final playoff spot.​​

Committee chair Hunter Yurachek specifically addressed head-to-head results on Tuesday night. Right now, with BYU between them, the committee can dodge the uncomfortable head-to-head conversation. But if BYU loses and drops out? The teams would be back-to-back in the rankings. It is exactly the scenario Yurachek described as making it easier to apply head-to-head results.​

“At which point on Selection Sunday, those two will be right next to each other. And you’re telling me that the head-to-head result with comparable teams is not going to push Miami over the finish line? I believe it would,” Pate added. 

Yurachek explicitly confirmed that rankings for non-playing teams aren’t fixed. So, if Duke wins the ACC, the committee must choose between including Miami or leaving the entire ACC out of the playoff. And that head-to-head win over Notre Dame in Week 1 could finally matter. It’s a long shot that requires multiple dominoes to fall perfectly. But for the first time all season, Mario Cristobal and the Hurricanes have a legitimate pathway to leap the Irish and crash the playoff party.​​

Joel Klatt predicts Notre Dame’s playoff collapse

Josh Pate isn’t the only analyst who sees the writing on the wall for Notre Dame. Joel Klatt is even more confident that the Irish are headed for a stunning playoff miss. Klatt invoked the most fundamental principle in sports to support his case.

“Every tiebreaker in any sport ever known to man on the face of the planet, what is the first criterion in the tiebreaker? Head to head.” He’s right to be frustrated with how the committee has handled this situation. Because Miami beat Notre Dame straight-up in Week 1. But Klatt goes a step further than Pate, actually predicting that Notre Dame will miss the playoff entirely. His reasoning centers on the same BYU factor. But with even more conviction that the committee will have no choice but to respect the head-to-head result.

“The canary in the coal mine right now is BYU,” Klatt explained. He noted that the Cougars are currently “protecting Notre Dame from a direct comparison with Miami” by sitting at No. 11 between the two rivals. But that buffer is about to disappear. “BYU is going to move because they play another game. 

The logic is ironclad. If BYU wins, they jump into the playoff as the Big 12 champion and push Notre Dame out entirely. If Texas Tech wins (as most expect after beating BYU 29-7 earlier this season), the Cougars drop behind both Miami and Notre Dame, forcing the committee into the direct head-to-head comparison they’ve been avoiding all season.