In 2025, CFB saw a record-breaking year with 15 head coaches fired, including Brian Kelly from LSU, James Franklin from PSU, and Billy Napier from Florida. To dismiss those coaches, an unprecedented $228M to $270M was spent in buyouts. Although it’s June, Sports Illustrated’s Brooks Austin is ready with his list of top-10 head coaches who could see the door in the 2026 season, triggering their hefty buyouts.

Brooks Austin ranked 10 coaches on his June 3 show, The Film Guy Network, with South Carolina’s Shane Beamer at No. 1. And at the No. 1 spot, he put South Carolina head coach Shane Beamer.

Beamer arrived in 2021 and built South Carolina into a bowl contender, but the recent collapse threatens his tenure. But in 2023, the Gamecocks dipped to 5-7; following that season, South Carolina saw a spectacular 9-4 bounce-back under Beamer’s leadership, leading to a major contract extension for Beamer through 2030. In 2025, the program again fell apart, with a 4-8 overall record and a 1-7 SEC record erasing his goodwill.

Despite that, the Gamecocks showed trust in the coach, investing huge amounts in retaining talent like Dylan Stewart, LaNorris Sellers, and more. But if Beamer can’t turn that investment into on-field success following an overhaul of the coaching staff, his job security is in jeopardy. And if South Carolina wants to fire him mid-season, it could face a financial hurdle, as his buyout sits at approx. $26 million to $27 million after his contract extension.

At the No. 2 spot, Austin posted Wisconsin head coach Luke Fickell. Fickell’s 57-18 record at Cincinnati, capped by an undefeated 2021 regular season and CFP berth, made him a national star. Following that, in 2023, multiple programs showed interest in Fickell, while he signed a massive contract with Wisconsin, but finished his debut season at 7-6, and the Badgers saw a 5-7 season in 2024.

Wisconsin’s 5-7 season in 2024 ended a 22-season bowl streak and marked the first losing record since 2001. Despite that, the coach returned for the 2026 season. But after back-to-back losing seasons, the program didn’t give Fickell a contract extension since his arrival, signaling his job security is tied to immediate production. If Wisconsin fires him without cause in 2026, the buyout sits at nearly $21M. But waiting can help the Badgers; his buyout will drop to approx. $13.6M by December 2026 if he fails to reach B1G contention.

No. 3 on the hot seat list is Baylor head coach Dave Aranda. Aranda’s debut was modest, but 2021 brought a 12-2 record and the Big 12 Championship. He led the Bears to a 12-2 record and a Big 12 Championship. However, he has produced 3 losing campaigns over the last four seasons. This season, the school would “not settle for mediocrity,” said the Baylor president. I Aranda added elite QB DJ Lagway via portal, but must convert that talent into wins or face firing. His buyout ranges approx. $12M to $15M.

At No. 4, Boston College head coach Bill O’Brien. Following Jeff Hafley’s NFL departure in 2024, Boston College hired O’Brien, and the program had a solid 7-6 season. But in 2025, the Eagles saw their worst season since 2012. Under O’Brien’s guidance, they finished the season 2-10. In 2026, he will serve as OC and play-caller, but the program’s focus is winning. If that does not happen, Boston College will cut ties with O’Brien. The head coach’s buyout is projected to be nearly $12.5 M.

At No. 5, Austin put Maryland head coach Mike Locksley. Under him, Maryland achieved three consecutive bowl games for the first time in school history (in 2021, 2022, and 2023). But in 2024, the Terrapins saw a 4-8 season. Last year, they started strong but unfortunately suffered an eight-game losing streak. Despite that, this season the school invested in NIL for roster building; now Locksley has to have an immediate return on that investment to secure his job. If the program fires the coach without cause, it owes him approx. $13.4 M.

No. 6 on the hot seat list is USC head coach Lincoln Riley. Riley’s success with the Oklahoma Juggernaut, four Big 12 titles, two Heisman Trophy winners, and three CFP appearances made him a coveted one. Following that, USC lured him with a massive 10-year, $110M deal in 2022. Under his leadership, the Trojans achieved instant success with an 11-3 record in his debut season. But the program didn’t reach this level of success in 2023 and 2024 following its B1G transition.

Last season, USC had a decent 9-4 record, but this wasn’t the expectation of the Trojans when they hired Riley. If USC fails to make the postseason in 2026 under the current head coach, patience will probably run out, and Riley could face a firing decision. But his buyout could be a safety net for him, as it is estimated to be roughly $80 million to $90 million.

At No. 7, Austin put Nebraska head coach Matt Rhule. In 2023, Nebraska hired Rhule to repair the Scott Frost era damage. And the coach delivered a 5-7 season in his first year. But in 2024, he led the Cornhuskers to a 7-6 season, yielding the program’s first bowl appearance since 2016. Following that season, Nebraska started with a 6-2 record under Rhule’s guidance. But Nebraska finished the 2025 season with a 7-6 record due to a late-season injury to QB1.

With that, Rhule holds a 19-19 record over his three seasons with the Cornhuskers. During the historic 2025 firing cycle, Rhule signed a two-year contract extension to secure his time at Nebraska. But without a huge jump in on-field success in 2026, his job is hanging by a thread. If Nebraska fires him without cause during or after this season, it would owe him $63M to $71M in a buyout. However, there are three more big names whose head coaching journeys in college take a hit this season.

Three more head coaches are wrapping the hot seat list

At No. 8, UNC head coach Bill Belichick. The Tar Heels brought in Belichick following his successful tenure with the Raiders with an expectation of building a “33-NFL” team. He signed a five-year, $50 million contract for his first collegiate coaching job. But the six-time Super Bowl-winning coach’s debut season at UNC was miserable, with a 4-8 record. Following that, UNC saw a huge portal exodus. Though one season isn’t enough to judge his potential. In 2026, he has to prove his prowess, leading the Tar Heels to a title run. Otherwise, UNC would owe him roughly $26.7 M following a decision to fire.

At No. 9, Austin put Colorado head coach Deion Sanders. After a rocky 4-8 season in 2023, the Buffs saw a huge jump in 2024 with a 9-4 record under Coach Prime. Following that, he signed a $54 M contract extension through 2029. But in 2025, due to several factors, Colorado plummeted to a miserable 3-9 record.

This season, Deion brought in nearly 43 transfers and made a coaching staff overhaul to ensure a title run. But if the Buffs fail to reach a bowl game again, there’s no guarantee of his job in Boulder. Now, if Colorado fires him without cause this season, it has to pay roughly $33.6M. But if Sanders decides to walk away, he owes the program $10 million.

Last but not least, at No. 10 is Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian. He spent his early tenure with the Longhorns rebuilding the team, but in 2023 and 2024, he led Texas to back-to-back CFP appearances. Last season, they tried but fell short following three losses to Florida. OSU and Georgia. “I came here to compete and win championships, and we didn’t do that last year,” said Sarkisian. This season, Texas is preparing for a title run, but if somehow they fail, the head coach’s job could take a hit, despite his $55M buyout.