The 24-19 loss to Ole Miss last season did more than put LSU in the loss column. It opened the floodgates. Two more defeats followed, and suddenly the Tigers were staring at a season that had fallen apart. LSU responded by changing nearly everything, bringing in 60 new players, a new quarterback, and Lane Kiffin as head coach.
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Now 2-0, the Tigers are heading back to Ole Miss on Saturday for revenge, however, the former head coach has a warning for them.
“The home team has won this matchup in the last four years. So, two and two over the last four years, and it’s been a team winning close games, overtime, one-score games. So, we already know what the outcome is. This is going to be a close game, and I’m going to lean towards the home team here. When you go on the road in the SEC, the home crowd makes a difference,” said Brian Kelly while having a conversation with CBS Inside College Football.
The former head coach is not wrong in his assessment. In the last four encounters of the Magnolia Bowl, the home team has won the matchup. If we talk about this season, approximately 83% of all games so far have been won by the home team.
But another concerning fact is that almost all games involving ranked teams have been won at home, leaving some doubt over whether Kiffin can secure a win against his former team. However, if we leave all the theatrics aside, this will certainly be a tough fight for LSU, but they still have a slight edge over Ole Miss.
LSU has been in acceleration mode since the start of the season, beating the Clemson Tigers 51-10 and then comfortably passing Louisiana Tech 45-14. However, that was not the case for Ole Miss. While they easily defeated Charlotte 41-9, they struggled against Louisville in week 1, barely winning the game 41-38, with their bad defense being the culprit.
The Rebels’ defensive backs suffered multiple communication errors. They allowed Louisville’s quarterback to burn them for seven passing plays of 20+ yards, including a massive 62-yard game-tying touchdown. On top of that, Ole Miss defenders missed a staggering 25 tackles in that game, according to Pro Football Focus.
While Ole Miss improved in its 41-9 win over Charlotte, the Rebels still entered Saturday ranked 108th nationally in total defense, allowing 395.5 yards per game through two contests.
The Tigers lead the SEC with 358 passing yards per game, while their defense has allowed only 36 rushing yards total (18.0 per game) through two games. With 12 sacks, LSU also leads the nation in sacks.
The numbers game is so heavily stacked against Ole Miss that former New York Jets quarterback and college football insider Greg McElroy also believes LSU has a clear edge over Ole Miss this time around, despite playing on the road.
“I’m taking the LSU Tigers to win the game 31-24,” McElroy said on Tuesday’s episode of Always College Football. “Look, I wanted Ole Miss all offseason. I thought for sure it was going to be their year.”
“The best group I’ve seen in the game is LSU’s defense,” McElroy said.
While Brian Kelly believes that Ole Miss would have the home advantage in the game, the numbers tell a different story. Who will win and who will lose? For that, we have to wait until Saturday.