Given how Arch Manning performed last year, it’s way too risky to project the Texas quarterback in next year’s draft. However, there is some buzz about the chances of him coming to play for the New York Jets. They’ve got a lackluster Geno Smith via free agency, whose disappointing play could put them in position to secure a top spot in the 2027 draft. But according to the legendary Mike Francesa, Manning may not end up with the Jets, singling out the famed family as the reason behind this upset.

“I hate to give you this a year in advance, and it will probably make you hate the Mannings more if you’re a Jet fan…Peyton didn’t want to play for the Jets,” Francesa said on his podcast. “They will not let Arch Manning play for the Jets. I’m telling you right now, they will manipulate the draft; they will never let him get drafted by the Jets. You can take that to the bank.”

It doesn’t take a genius to know that the Jets have failed QBs repeatedly. The last great gunslinger they had was Joe Namath, who played 60 years ago. Since Geno Smith made his QB1 debut for the Jets in 2013, the team has had 13 starting quarterbacks until now. A fair reason for the Mannings not to let Arch risk crippling his career here, especially if he emerges as the top pick.

The family has meddled with the draft previously. In 2004, the San Diego Chargers said that Archie Manning (Arch’s grandfather) didn’t want his son Eli playing for them, even though they had the first pick. The team picked Eli anyway, but the family forced a trade to the Giants. A similar thing happened earlier as well, with Peyton Manning, Eli’s older brother.

The Jets had the No. 1 pick and would be getting a future icon at QB. However, Peyton chose to stay at Tennessee for his senior year. Reportedly, that happened because the family tried to get a guarantee that the Jets would definitely draft Peyton, but former head coach Bill Parcells wouldn’t budge. Peyton Manning later admitted he was worried he’d struggle under Parcells’ tough coaching. Instead, he went to the Colts as the No. 1 pick and had a team that stuck by him until he became a legend.

Even if Arch tried to defy his family to carve out a legacy for himself, and the Jets have also made their way to the top of the order, the Mannings would have very likely stepped in to prevent this from happening. But he’s followed his uncle’s path and returned to college after Archie Manning told the media that his grandson would do so. It had already become necessary for him to return to Texas for 2026 because there were no hopes of him being the star pick after his brutal 2025 season. Very conveniently, he is also avoiding the Jets this way.

Can Arch Manning be the No. 1 pick?

Fans saw him as a No. 1 pick before he’d even taken his first snap as a full-time starter at Texas. But boy, was that season a letdown. Manning became one of the season’s biggest disappointments, struggling in the first few games. He missed throws, became erratic, and his time was made so much more difficult by a bad supporting cast. The QB was pretty much left to fend for himself and was sacked left and right.

However, he rose to meet the challenge after a rocky first month. Manning improved so much that Texas might have missed out on a playoff spot only because they lost the Georgia game, which would have been their 10th win. Manning started to look like a member of the veteran family of quarterbacks once again. But if he is to retain the hype around his chances of emerging as a top pick for the 2027 draft, he has to be even better. One scout told Fox Sports’ Ralph Vacchiano that he might have a shot at securing the top pick.

“He might still go No. 1,” he said. “All the tools are there, even if the performance was erratic. He might need a little time to grow into himself as a player. But he’s got the size, the arm, the intangibles, and the kid had some great games.”

Meanwhile, the timing works out perfectly for a ‘tank’ year for the Jets. They have a one-year deal with Smith. If the season goes south with him, but the rest of the roster, like the offensive line and young receivers, actually looks solid, it might prove to the Manning camp that the team is only a QB short from being a contender. It’s fascinating to see how this one would go.