Can a non-SEC powerhouse survive three losses and still crash the College Football Playoff? With Ohio State facing a brutal 2026 slate, analysts are split on whether high-grade schedule strength can outweigh three stumbles on the field. While commentators like Greg McElroy and Joel Klatt remain cautious about the Buckeyes’ postseason math, Cover 3 Podcast host Danny Kanell believes the discussion is far more complicated than simple win totals.

“I’m selling Ohio State as a lock to make the college football playoff. Their schedule is one of the toughest in the country,” said Kanell this week, as per video shared by CBS Sports College Football on August 11.

Ohio State has to travel to Austin to face Texas before plunging into an unforgiving conference run. A road trip to Bloomington to face reigning champion Indiana looms as a season-defining hurdle for head coach Ryan Day. Dropping that matchup could derail their conference title hopes before November even arrives.

OSU won’t get any room to breathe, as it will travel to play USC and Iowa. Even the home games won’t favor the Buckeyes at all. Hosting Oregon will not be a cakewalk for Ryan Day’s squad. And before the end of the regular season, OSU has to face its historic rival, Michigan. Despite the impressive gauntlet, Kanell warns that a three-loss record might still leave Ohio State in contention.

“I think you could see a nine-and-three Ohio State team left out potentially, and then we could see Ryan Day up there making the same case that Sark did last year about strength of schedule and how tough it is,” added Kanell. “I think they are a really good football team, but I do wonder when it all stacks up. They’re nine and three. Will the committee give them that headshot?”

Last year, Texas had a 10-win season and a strong SOS, but the Longhorns failed to appear in a playoff berth for three losses, especially the OSU loss. Following that CFP snub, Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian tried a lot to make their case, but nothing ultimately worked out.

Navigating Indiana, Texas, and Michigan requires elite talent, and Ohio State has built the roster to handle it. Led by 2025 Heisman finalist quarterback Julian Sayin, star receiver Jeremiah Smith, and 17 incoming transfer portal additions, the Buckeyes carry the firepower needed to win high-stakes games. But to stay in the title contention, they will have to “earn the number one seed.”

“So, Ohio State is good enough to run the table. The schedule guarantees they’ll have to earn the number one seed against the toughest field any Buckeye team has faced in years,” said former Alabama QB McElroy.

Ryan Day remains unfazed

For Ohio State, winning every game is the standard, and the Buckeyes’ star QB Julian Sayin clarified this earlier this year. He said beating Michigan is a must, but OSU’s focus is a title run, taking down other opponents. However, their toughest schedule raises questions because it is something that their former head coach, Urban Meyer, never had to go through. Despite the challenge, current head coach Ryan Day is optimistic about the outcome.

“When you look at our schedule this year, you take a step back and you say, ‘Well, it’s probably the most difficult schedule in the history of the school,'” said Ryan Day this month. “But to me, it’s exciting. Because with the way the new playoff format is set, you know, we can learn a lot about ourselves and get really salty.”

As Klatt pointed out, missing the playoffs in Columbus carries immediate pressure. Yet recent years proved that teams weathering elite opponents can surprise critics come Selection Sunday. Whether Ohio State can turn the nation’s toughest non-SEC path into a historic three-loss playoff invitation now rests entirely on how they navigate September through November.