If there’s any award for the best bounce-back of the season, that trophy should be named after the UCLA Bruins. Despite losing the first four games of the season and their head coach, the Bruins shocked the college football world by winning straight games, including one against the preseason No. 2 ranked Penn State. It’s been a true Cinderella-like turnaround under interim HC Tim Skipper, but there’s still one weakness in the roster that’s holding them back. According to college football insiders, the Bruins are going to get exposed big-time against the No. 2 ranked Indiana Hoosiers.

On October 21st, college football’s emerging duo, Blake Ruffino and Joe DeLeone, hopped onto ‘The Ruffino & Joe Show’ Podcast and called out UCLA’s biggest weakness. Not their DBs, neither their wideouts. It’s’ their rushing defense. Joe started hot: “There’s a problem, Joe, it’s not the past game in the wide receivers that I worry about. It’s not the pass rush that I worry about. Dude, this one defense (run defense) for UCLA, even with a change with Tim Skipper, is God awful.”

Blake Ruffino wasn’t lying. Indeed, they have one of the worst run defenses in the country. The Bruins are averaging somewhere in the ballpark of 171 rushing yards allowed. According to Blake Ruffino, the UCLA are ranked 115th nationally in stopping the run and an even worse 133rd out of 134 teams on third-down defense. Want to know how many times they’ve stopped their opponents’ run on third down for a first down? Just twice all season, per Ruffino’s count.

Even though the Bruins made a few big plays against Maryland and Michigan State, Ruffino says the defense hasn’t really figured anything out under new defensive coordinator Tim Skipper. Against Michigan State, UCLA’s front did step up, holding the Spartans to just 87 rushing yards — but that’s not likely to cut it against the No. 2 ranked Indiana Hoosiers’ explosive weapons.

To make things more complicated, UCLA’s athletic department still seems uncertain about the long-term head coach situation, leaving even more questions about what’s next for the program.

Blake doubled down on his take: “This is just a different beast. I do think that this game is going to be early, a little bit more competitive than maybe people would’ve thought. But Indiana is a really good team.” And he’s got a point. The Hoosiers got one of the most explosive offense in the country. They are averaging close to 500 yards and 43 points per game. And their running game? Backed with dawgs like Roman Hemby, Kaelon Black and Kobhie Martin.  This trio has combined for nine touchdowns and is averaging 226 yards per game, which ranks around the top 12–14 in the nation. Although UCLA’s offense has shown life under Jerry Neuheisel’s play-calling, their run defense is light-years behind.

Blake gave props to Tim Skipper for a miraculous turnaround of the program, but he doesn’t think UCLA’s run defense got any chance this weekend. He summed it up perfectly: “I think [they’re] going to get run through like a hot knife through butter.” In Cali words, the Indiana Hoosiers will run the train on UCLA’s defense.

Indiana vs UCLA: Odds and more

The UCLA Bruins are hitting the road to take on Curt Cignetti’s Indiana Hoosiers on Saturday, Oct. 25, at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, and let’s just say the oddsmakers don’t have much faith in the Bruins pulling off a miracle. According to BetMGM Sportsbook, Indiana is a massive 24.5-point favorite, sitting at -3000 on the moneyline. And on the flip side, UCLA is at +1300, which is pretty much screams “long shot.” The over/under for this Big Ten matchup is 54.5 points, suggesting that fans might at least see some scoring — just probably more from Indiana’s side.

ESPN’s Football Power Index paints a similar picture, giving Indiana a whopping 96.2% chance to win, while UCLA’s odds of pulling the upset sit at just 3.8%. That’s rough; that’s life. Indiana has looked borderline impossible to beat this season; only Kirk Ferentz’s Hawkeyes came close to them. However, they flipped the script with a bounce-back dub against former No.3 Oregon Ducks. And beating Indiana, that too at home? Nevermind.

Most prediction models seem to agree on how this one will go. Dimers.com ran its simulations and came out with a projected score of Indiana 38, UCLA 14. With all due respect, unless or until the football gods clutch up, it’s Indiana’s to lose.