Ole Miss QB, Trinidad Chambliss, is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Becoming an NFL QB doesn’t guarantee him a first-round pick, whereas returning to college ball in 2026 is now stuck in an NCAA limbo. With a court hearing scheduled for February 12, Chambliss will need to make a decision fast. Especially since he has now failed the ‘Jaxson Dart’ test.

Adam Carter, Director of Player Personnel at the University of San Diego, highlighted how Chambliss might not be as good a QB as people think. And how the Ole Miss QB1 may need another year to hone his skills in college football. Carter compared former Ole Miss QBs Matt Corral and Jaxson Dart to Trinidad. He showed how the current Ole Miss QB1 lags behind the two players when they were at the Oxford program.

When comparing short-throw accuracy, Dart had an impressive 83.1% completion rate, standing out over both Corral and Chambliss. “It’s the highest mark of all time and directly connected to his efficiency against the blitz,” Carter wrote. Meanwhile, Chambliss’ accuracy in the same window was merely 64.50%. Corrall stood at 2nd with 66.30%

Despite that, Carter highlighted that none of the three QBs was consistently accurate in tight windows in 10+ yard situations. Matt Corral compiled a 58% completion rate on 10-20-yard passes and 47.20% accuracy on 20+-yard passes. Chambliss, on the other hand, has the lowest completion rate at 47.40% in 10-20 yard situations. Whereas, his 20+ yard passes are second best at a 42.10% completion rate, standing behind Corral’s 47.40% accuracy. But why does this matter?

Chambliss’s NCAA court appeal rests on two key pillars. First is, of course, his inability to play in the 2022 season with Ferris State. The second one is Chambliss’ uncertainty of becoming a top NFL pick, effectively impeding his ability to earn more in college football. So, in a scenario where he is not drafted in the first round, Chambliss will earn far less than the $5 million per year amount reportedly promised to him at Ole Miss.

And the statistics being discussed here right now prove that Chambliss is not what analysts thought he was after he won Ole Miss their ticket to the semi-finals after defeating Georgia.

“If Trinidad is ineligible and is forced to enter the NFL draft, he will likely sustain monetary losses in the millions of dollars,” Trinidad’s lawsuit states. “(It is) measured by the difference between the value of his existing Name, Image, and Likeness agreement versus the likely amount of his compensation in year one of the NFL.”

To get a nuanced understanding, let’s look at the careers of players with whom Chambliss is being compared. Matt Corral, for instance, who finished his Ole Miss career in 2021, was selected in the third round of the 2022 NFL draft. That happened even when, visibly, the QB was better than Trinidad in key areas, as previously highlighted. Only Jaxson Dart was a first-round pick in the 2025 NFL draft, selected 25th overall. But Dart is a far better QB than both Corral and Trinidad, and Chambliss will need another season to reach Jaxson’s levels.

However, even with Dart being selected in the first round, he received a 4-year, $17 million deal with the Giants. That’s roughly $4.25 million per year, still less than what Chambliss will make at Ole Miss. For him, coming back makes sense both for financial and footballing reasons as well.

Trinidad Chambliss’ lawyers highlight the NCAA’s flawed system

According to court records, a February 12 hearing is now scheduled for Trinidad’s preliminary injunction. The hearing will take place at the Calhoun County Courthouse at 9.30 a.m., and the Ole Miss QB’s legal team has an aggressive stance against the NCAA. Chambliss’s lawyers have already submitted a detailed memorandum, highlighting the NCAA’s flawed process and biased appeal structure.

“The NCAA literally instructed its staff to unconditionally ‘deny cases requesting … additional seasons of competition,’ regardless of the evidence,” the memorandum states. “Even on appeal of the initial staff-level denial, the NCAA’s directives establish a predisposition prejudicial to the student-athlete by proclaiming the appellate committee is ‘inclined to deny’ the waiver request despite the evidence.”

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Furthermore, the memorandum also highlighted how a denial is always “predetermined” by the NCAA without considering the merits of a particular case. In all, the documents term the NCAA’s waiver request as a “futile” endeavor and show how the appeals committee twice reviewed the case last week without issuing a ruling. Notably, that was done on Ole Miss’s appeal, and now it remains to be seen how the legal battle plays out on February 12.