Top programs chase blue-chip recruits partly because those players often turn into early NFL draft picks. But that’s not the case this season. Five-star players often perform well in college and become a top pick in the NFL. Even this season, 247 Sports predicted the same, but on Day 1 of the 2026 NFL Draft, that long-held belief was shattered. More 3-star recruits were hearing their names called in the first round than the so-called ‘can’t-miss’ 5-star prospects.

Just before the NFL Draft, 247Sports posted a message on X saying that “stars matter,” meaning highly rated high school recruits usually become top NFL draft picks. They showed data from the 2025 NFL Draft to support this idea. Out of 32 first-round picks, 26 players (81%) were blue-chip recruits, meaning they were highly ranked coming out of high school.

The data also highlighted the concentration of talent at the very top of the draft, with 12 of the first 13 picks (92%) being former 4- or 5-star recruits. Across the entire first round, the numbers showed a broader distribution: 11 picks (34%) were 5-star players, while a larger group of 21 (66%) came from the Top247 recruiting class.

After the NFL Draft finished, the actual results were quite different from what many expected based on earlier assumptions about “stars matter.” College football writer Chris Hummer posted new data on X showing the real breakdown of the 1st-round picks. He reported that out of all 32 first-round picks, only 6 were 5-star recruits, 12 were 4-star recruits, and 14 were 3-star recruits. This revealed the alarming fact that not every top college football prospect makes it to the NFL.

The bigger takeaway is not that recruiting rankings suddenly mean nothing. It is that this first round gave more room than usual to players who developed later, were underrated early, or simply outgrew their high school label.

He also reminded everyone that only about 1% of players each year are 5-star recruits and around 10% are 4-star players. When combining 4-star and 5-star recruits as “blue-chip” players, they made up 56.3% of all first-round picks. This means just over half of the top NFL draft players were highly rated prospects, while a large number still came from lower rankings.

Fernando Mendoza is a better example to use here because he fits the draft story itself. He became Indiana’s first Heisman winner and then went No. 1 overall, which makes his rise a clean reminder that college development can beat early recruiting labels.

Even players like Patrick Mahomes, who was a three-star prospect out of high school, showed immense potential coming to college. He was a 1st-round NFL Draft pick (10th overall) for the Chiefs and also became a Super Bowl champion. So, this year the team focused more on potential rather than stars in their back. Now, with the remaining players, let’s take a look at the players and their probable destinations on Day 2.

NFL Draft Day 2 alleged players

With 32 players off the board now, attention turns to the best remaining players heading into Day 2, based on rankings from NFL draft experts Nate Tice and Charles McDonald.

Jermod McCoy (CB, Tennessee)

As one of the top defensive backs still available, McCoy combines solid size with the speed, quickness, and ball skills to excel in man-to-man coverage. However, he is still recovering from an ACL injury, so teams have not fully seen his current physical condition. Report that projects McCoy going No. 29 overall to the Chiefs.

Denzel Boston (WR, Washington)

Boston is a big and smooth wide receiver who stands out for his clean route-running. He moves easily in and out of breaks and has strong hands when catching the football. He also helps in special teams as a punt returner and is very good at gaining extra yards after the catch. Reports suggest the Jets are in contention to add him. As they need another receiver next to Garrett Wilson,

T.J. Parker (Edge, Clemson)

Parker is a strong and flexible defensive player on the edge. He can fit into different defensive systems and is very good at stopping the run. He may not become a top pass rusher who leads the league in sacks, but he is expected to be a steady and dependable starter. Multiple mock drafts and analysts connect Parker to the Bears. They need edge rush help opposite Montez Sweat.

Avieon Terrell (CB, Clemson)

He may not be the most explosive or athletic player, but he stays calm and consistent when defending receivers. Even though he may not become a full shutdown corner who completely locks down top receivers, he is reliable and has the skills to be a long-term NFL starter. One team linked to him in draft predictions is the New York Giants, who are looking for defensive help in their secondary. Let’s wait and see which team they finally go with.