With more than half of the NFL teams needing QB upgrades and supply running thin beyond Fernando Mendoza, dark horses have emerged naturally. An FCS program that has a track record of sending in first-rounders is predicted to send its 2025 QB1 as 2nd overall QB in the 2026 draft class. This has come as a major blow to Bama QB Ty Simpson’s 1st round hopes.

According to reports, NFL scouts are now increasingly viewing North Dakota State QB1 Cole Payton as QB2 in the 2026 NFL draft. “He’s QB 2 for me, yeah. The more I watch, the more I like,” a longtime NFL evaluator told NFL insider Jason La Canfora. “I haven’t had a chance to talk to him myself, but we hear he’s a really good kid. I like his decision-making. I see above-average arm strength and accuracy. He has the body.”

North Dakota State recruited Cole Payton as a 2-star recruit from Omaha, Nebraska. Although he spent his 4 years behind other QBs, including the 2021 draft’s 3rd pick, Trey Lance. Payton finally started in the 2025 season and showed incredible release speed, ball distribution, and rushing prowess. The 6’3″ and 233 lbs QB notched 2,719 passing yards at 72% efficiency and rushed for 777 yards last year. Although there are some concerns regarding Payton’s high sack rate. NFL evaluators are still confident in him, even at the cost of Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza in the 2026 NFL draft.

“I get why Mendoza is going first; he has checked every box and met every challenge. I don’t think he is the best player in the draft,” a longtime NFL executive told Jason La Canfora. “I don’t think this kid from North Dakota State is that far behind him. I really don’t. Two or three years from now, I think he can be there with (Mendoza). People who are doing the work are seeing it too. This kid can play.”

Despite being recruited as a 2-star recruit in the 2021 class, Payton came to the Bisons’ team after winning the Nebraska Gatorade Player of the Year award. Thereafter, during his sporadic appearances for the team, the Omaha native started displaying his rushing ability and grew swiftly. In total, Payton has rushed 1,919 yards in his collegiate career, and many NFL teams consider him a solid option.

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The New York Jets, with their 2nd and 16th pick overall, can take Payton easily. The team also has a history with mobile QBs and needs stability after struggles with Justin Fields. Furthermore, Aaron Glenn’s QB philosophy also needs a disciplined and run-oriented QB. And QB coach Bill Musgrave also needs someone with safe decision-making and a no-nonsense approach. In all, getting selected in the first round will be big for an FCS QB like Payton. But for Bama QB1, this is a major blow.

Cole Payton’s rise can jeopardize Ty Simpson’s draft stock

Just like Payton, Alabama’s Ty Simpson also started his first season as QB1 for the team in 2025. He passed for 3,567 yards at 64.5% efficiency, and instead of returning for the 2026 season, he chose to declare for the NFL draft. It was an unexpected move since Simpson even rejected an offer of $6 million from some teams. He registered in the NFL draft even as many analysts were urging Simpson to stall for one more year.

Now that Cole Payton has risen unexpectedly, Simpson’s first-round status might be in jeopardy. While earlier, Simpson was the 2nd overall QB in Mel Kiper Jr’s 2026 draft board, Cole Payton’s tape might even make him change his grade for Simpson now. Although Payton hasn’t played against Power-4 defenses and has had some issues, many still expect him to develop smoothly due to his overall talent.

Scouts highly grade Payton’s field mobility and mechanics, along with his elite throwing distance. The 233 lbs QB still has to do some work on his ball security and decision making, along with progressions. But all of that will come gradually after a year spent behind NFL QBs. So, if Payton is drafted in the first round, he will join an elite list of players from his alma mater.

Most recently, in the 2025 NFL draft, the Seahawks selected Bisons’ OL Grey Zabel at 18th overall. Amongst QBs, Trey Lance went to the 49ers at 3rd overall in 2021, and Carson Wentz went to the Eagles at 2nd overall in 2016.

North Dakota State has put in consistent performances in the FCS and has a 26-3 record in two years under head coach Tim Polasek. The heroics have finally reaped reward, and starting from 2026, the Bisons will play in the Mountain West Conference. It’ll be truly a new era for the team as Payton would script history.