Alabama’s Rose Bowl loss didn’t stop Ty Simpson from declaring for the 2026 NFL draft. The 23-year-old skipped his senior year after just one season as the Tide’s starter, and it’s paying off. Simpson reportedly earned first-round grades across the league, and draft insiders Todd McShay and Steve Muench now peg him as a strong fit for the $7.5 billion Miami Dolphins.

“I would be very surprised if this whole process ends and Ty Simpson’s not a first-round pick,” McShay said on his YouTube show before addressing the elephant in the room. “Is he capped?”

“I say he is,” co-host Steve Muench replied. “If I’m getting the quarterback that he was at times this year, awesome. I am all set. Give me that guy all day. You’re going to win a lot of games with that kind of quarterback. But that again goes back to what I was saying. There aren’t a lot of areas that he can really help himself in the pre-draft process because I do think that’s his max.”

“Miami, sitting at 11, by the way, would be a very interesting fit,” McShay added.

The Dolphins clearly need a new franchise QB, and after missing the playoffs for another year, the desperation is real, with Tua Tagovailoa indefinitely out with a concussion. Ty Simpson looks like a legit first-round pick, even though his stock went down a bit as the season went on. Through Alabama’s first nine games, Simpson was sharp, completing 67% of his passes for 2,184 yards with 20 touchdowns and just one pick. The final stretch told a different story.

Over his last seven games, his completion rate dipped to 60.4%, with 1,383 yards, eight touchdowns, and four interceptions. The biggest red flag? His worst performances came on the biggest stages. Simpson struggled badly in the SEC Championship against Georgia and then managed just 67 passing yards in the CFP loss to Indiana. That résumé doesn’t exactly scream “top-15 pick.” Because of that, he probably shouldn’t be in play for Miami at No. 11 overall.

But if he slips into Day 2, he starts to look like a gamble worth taking. There’s still plenty to like. This was Simpson’s first year as a starter, and early on, he showed a firm command of Alabama’s offense. He reads defenses well before the snap and gets the unit into the right plays. The concern is regarding what happens after the snap. When defenses started disguising looks and forcing him off-script, he struggled.

He also took some rough sacks late in the year, showing he’s still learning when to scramble and when to stay within the play. His production also dipped when the surrounding support faded. Against Indiana, Alabama’s run game disappeared. Daniel Hill and Kevin Riley had eight carries for 15 yards, and Simpson couldn’t carry the offense on his own.

Who leads the Tide if Ty Simpson’s out? 

Ty Simpson’s exit officially kicks off what might be the most intriguing quarterback battle of the offseason in Tuscaloosa. Alabama now turns to two exciting underclassmen ready to fight for the job: junior Austin Mack and freshman Keelon Russell. Mack looks the part immediately. At 6-foot-6 and 235 pounds, he’s a physical monster and was a blue-chip recruit ranked No. 73 overall in the Top247.

He had major offers from across the West Coast and briefly flirted with transferring after Simpson won the job. But he stayed loyal to Kalen DeBoer thanks to their shared history at Washington. Even with limited action, Mack has flashed real upside. He’s appeared in just five games, but when Simpson went down in the Rose Bowl, Mack stepped in and sparked Alabama’s best stretch of offense.

He led a nine-play, 65-yard drive that ended in a field goal, highlighted by a 34-yard strike to Germie Bernard and a tough 13-yard run. He finished the day 11-of-16 for 103 yards and looked completely unfazed. Then there’s Russell, the wildcard. The freshman was a late riser in the 2025 class and redshirted his first year, so there’s no stat line to point to yet. But the buzz is real.

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247Sports’ Andrew Ivins was glowing in his evaluation, even comparing Russell to Jayden Daniels. That alone tells you how high his ceiling might be. Offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb already faced a tough call last year, choosing between Simpson and Mack, ultimately leaning on experience. This time, the decision could be even harder with Russell pushing from behind.