Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson shocked the college football world on January 6 by declaring for the 2026 NFL Draft after just one season as a starter. But as the deadline approaches, some of college football’s top analysts are telling him to pump the brakes on the NFL dream.

FOX Sports analyst Joel Klatt has been one of the most vocal voices urging Simpson to reconsider. “Some news around Ty Simpson at Alabama. The quarterback has reportedly said that he’s going to go to the National Football League. I typically disagree with that decision for him,” Klatt said on his show. “Great player. I love Ty Simpson. He makes NFL throws. I will say this, though: experience pays, and I’m not talking about dollars and cents. I’m talking about success and success rate in the NFL, and more specifically, your ability to go and compete for and win championships in the NFL.”

Klatt also pointed out how drastically the calculus has changed in the NIL era.

“Now, it’s not like it used to be, where you had to go to the National Football League in order to enjoy the financial reward that comes with quality play. Now, that’s not the case. Ty Simpson can be paid handsomely to stay in school and continue that development and get more of that experience. There are reports that he’s got an offer for $6.5 million to stay in school and get out there. What I would say is a cautionary tale that when you look at the players that jump into the NFL, and they get into a bad fit, and they don’t have a wealth of experience to fall back on, generally speaking, what happens is they don’t succeed.”

The numbers do back up Klatt’s concern. When you look at quarterbacks who’ve won Super Bowls since 2000, there’s a clear pattern. They typically had extensive college careers featuring more than 30 starts, over 1,200 pass attempts, north of 750 completions, and at least 50 touchdown passes before entering the NFL. 

Bo Nix spent five years in college between Auburn and Oregon, racking up nearly 2,000 pass attempts before Denver made him a first-round pick. And he immediately helped resurrect a struggling franchise. Jayden Daniels played five seasons across Arizona State and LSU, accumulating over 1,400 throws and a Heisman Trophy. And in his first season, he led Washington deep into the postseason as a rookie. 

Even Caleb Williams, who “only” played three years, still logged significantly more starts than Simpson before entering the draft. He is currently competing in the postseason. Meanwhile, quarterbacks like Simpson and Dante Moore, who’ve primarily been one-year starters, are being advised to return to school for exactly that reason. 

The clock is ticking for Simpson. With the NFL Draft early entry deadline set for January 14, he has less than 24 hours to withdraw his declaration and pivot to the transfer portal, where that $6.5 million Miami offer is waiting. If he doesn’t make a decision by tomorrow, that window closes. And he will be locked into the draft process. ​

Money meets development

ESPN analyst Jordan Rodgers is singing the same tune as Klatt. “He should definitely come back to school,” Rodgers said bluntly after Simpson’s season ended. “He’s not positioning himself as a QB1 or QB2 in the draft based on how his season ended.” Rodgers pointed out that Simpson’s draft stock took a significant hit down the stretch of the season. He was a Heisman favorite at midseason but faded badly in November and December. 

With three SEC schools offering north of $4 million and one program (rumored to be Miami) offering $6.5 million, Simpson could make more money playing college football in 2026 than he would as a late first-round or second-round pick. 

As Eli Manning noted about Daniels and Nix’s success, “The more reps you get, the more defenses you see, the more experience you get with learning an offense.” Simpson has the talent. But with only one year of starting experience, he’s risking becoming another cautionary tale of a quarterback who jumped too early and never reached his potential.​

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