Thursday’s Rose Bowl saw Alabama get dismantled by Indiana. The 38-3 loss became the worst postseason loss in program history. Ty Simpson was out of the game before halftime, sidelined by a cracked rib. But as questionable as the loss was, it’s also about the QB’s draft outlook and how much of that answer depends on events happening well outside Tuscaloosa, starting with Oregon QB Dante Moore.

On January 2, that connection became public when Alabama beat writer Nick Kelly relayed ESPN insider Pete Thamel’s thoughts on the playoff QB market. 

“Worth following,” Kelly wrote. “Could impact Simpson’s decision. Simpson likely QB2 if Moore stays in college.”

Thamel doubled down during an appearance on The Pat McAfee Show. While Dante Moore is widely mocked as a top-two pick, he said there is real belief inside Oregon that their QB could return for another season. 

“There is a feeling at Oregon that he could stay,” Thamel said. “And he’s even said that to one of the TV crews going into the JMU game. He’s younger. He’s kind of seen adversity. He’s a little bit of a slight guy he could probably use to put on some weight. So I’m not telling he’s definitely coming back, but I do think that’s there on the table.”

The takeaway was simple but consequential. If Dante Moore stays in college, Ty Simpson could be the second QB taken in the 2026 NFL Draft, behind Indiana star Fernando Mendoza. If Moore declares for the draft, Simpson’s positioning changes entirely. His on-field resume only sharpens the stakes. He threw for 3,280 yards and 28 touchdowns in 2025, numbers that place him firmly in the first-round conversation. Oregon is also still alive in the playoff, with a Peach Bowl matchup against Indiana looming. 

According to CBS Sports, Fernando Mendoza is the most popular projection to go No. 1 overall as of the latest projection. He won the Heisman Trophy and led Indiana to an unbeaten season before dismantling Alabama in Pasadena. Dante Moore is mocked No. 3 overall in that same projection. Ty Simpson follows shortly after, slotted inside the top five.

The second half of the season told a different story. Over Alabama’s final six games, Simpson’s production dipped sharply. He averaged just 184.3 passing yards, with seven touchdowns and four interceptions, and struggled in losses to Oklahoma, Georgia, and Indiana. Against the Hoosiers, he finished 12-of-16 for 67 yards, averaging just 4.2 yards per attempt. The defining play was a second-quarter hit that forced a fumble and cracked his rib.

“On the fumble, took a helmet to the ribs, cracked my rib,” Ty Simpson said afterward. He tried to return, started the third quarter, then pulled himself. 

“I thought Austin being 100% could help us win,” he added. 

That decision speaks to Ty Simpson’s maturity, but it doesn’t erase the questions NFL teams will ask. He averaged 273.4 yards per game over the first nine contests and protected the ball well. Then the efficiency vanished when the competition stiffened. Which brings the discussion back to timing and leverage.

Will Ty Simpson declare for the 2026 NFL Draft?

This year’s QB class is widely viewed as thin. Beyond Mendoza and Moore, evaluators see limited first-round certainty. That creates opportunity for Ty Simpson whose arm talent, size, and flashes of high-level play could push him into the first round if he declares. Waiting risks losing that advantage if next year’s class is stronger or if Alabama’s offense looks the same late-season version of 2025.

Staying, however, isn’t without logic. NFL teams value multi-year starters. A healthy Ty Simpson leading Alabama for another full season could erase doubts created in November and December. But that decision would come with collateral damage. Austin Mack has already waited three years. Keelon Russell is the 5-star future of the program. Alabama is unlikely to keep all three, especially with two more QBs arriving in the 2026 class and a reshuffled coaching staff. Simpson hasn’t tipped his hand either. 

“Not at all,” the 23-year-old said when asked about next season. “I’m just really worried about these last minutes with the seniors and everybody who won’t be here next year.”

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The deadline is January 14. By then, Dante Moore’s intentions may still be unclear. For Ty Simpson, that may be the hardest part. His next move depends not just on Alabama or the NFL but also on a QB in Oregon who hasn’t made his decision yet.