The Alabama QB1 decision everyone’s been waiting on still hasn’t dropped, but Ty Simpson’s agent may have just nudged the door wide open. Simpson’s future has subtly emerged as Tuscaloosa’s biggest unsolved question as the Crimson Tide reset under Kalen DeBoer following a Rose Bowl loss.

Pete Thamel reported that, according to Simpson’s sports marketing agent, Peter Webb, no final call has been made on what the junior quarterback will do in 2026.

“No decisions have been made about Ty declaring for the draft at this point, and he is still evaluating everything with his family and close advisors,” Webb said.

“No, not at all,” Simpson told reporters when asked if he had made plans yet for 2026. “I’m just really worried about these last minutes with the seniors and everybody who won’t be here next year.”

While returning to college football remains an option, either at Alabama or through the transfer portal, the NFL Draft is being viewed as the most likely outcome, even though nothing has been officially decided yet.

That hesitation is obvious because Simpson’s stock took a dip in the second half of the 2025 season. He led Alabama to a 10-2 record and a CFP spot in his debut season as a starter, throwing for 3,567 yards, 28 touchdowns, and only five interceptions.

However, with a struggling O-line and run game, Simpson had to carry the weight of the entire offense on his shoulders. On ESPN’s Mel Kiper’s big board, he is currently ranked at No. 3 among quarterbacks, behind only Dante Moore and Fernando Mendoza.

That late-season uncertainty also spilled over to the depth chart behind him, and the Rose Bowl offered a sudden glimpse into Alabama’s possible next chapter. Austin Mack experienced his first significant action under terrible circumstances after being thrown into the fire at the greatest stage of college football. He filled in for an injured Ty Simpson during the Tide’s crushing defeat to No. 1 Indiana. The former four-star recently opened up about his future plans.

“As of right now (I’ll be at Alabama), yes,” Mack told reporters after the Rose Bowl. “I’m kind of being where my feet are at, I just played in a Rose Bowl game, so I’m kind of just still digesting that and figuring it out. (But) I’m excited for my future, yeah.”

Mack showed composure in relief, completing 11 of 16 passes for 103 yards and guiding Alabama to its lone scoring drive, a small yet telling reminder of why the 6-foot-6 sophomore remains a fascinating piece as the Crimson Tide’s quarterback picture continues to shift. And that uncertainty at the position is rooted in what’s already unfolding.

Ty Simpson’s NFL draft reality

Ty Simpson’s draft discussion has been brewing in the background since the South Carolina game. Simpson might be leaving Tuscaloosa not because he failed, but because everything around him is starting to tighten. Injuries. Draft stock questions. Now that his agent has confirmed Simpson is weighing all options, the breadcrumbs leading to this moment feel impossible to ignore.

After South Carolina, concerns grew that Simpson’s fall could harm Alabama as well as his own NFL prospects, prompting sources to initially suggest the transfer portal as a possibility, as reported by A to Z Sports.

“You have to give him credit for all the hits he took, but it changed his approach over the last seven games of the season mentally and physically. Simpson would seem rushed and leave a clean pocket at times when he didn’t have to, and that voice in the back of his head was telling him to be safe, while he wanted to play free ball like he always has.

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Simpson is still a baller, but the damage he took, the injuries on the team, and the non-existent run game put all the weight on Simpson, and it was too much too overcome in the end,” Taylor wrote.

Colin Gay of The Tuscaloosa News later reported Simpson suffered a lower back injury in that game, and he quietly battled for the rest of the season.

Then came Tom Loy’s report that Simpson could consider Tennessee or Oregon if first-round draft grades don’t materialize. And if Simpson decides on the transfer portal path, he could earn quite a bit more NIL money than he’s making now, according to On3’s Andy Staples.

“An experienced, successful college QB playing at a major power conference program should expect at least $2 million,” Staples wrote. “But a top-shelf QB who took a team to the SEC title game and the College Football Playoff — despite his team having little to no run game — probably would command at least $2.5 million and possibly significantly more. Depending on how many bidders might be in the market, that figure could push toward $4 million.”

Around the league, draft evaluators echoed similar doubts, citing his injuries and uneven performance over the final six weeks. That’s where NFL Network insider Tom Pelissero steps in.

“Ty Simpson from Alabama, if he chooses to come out, I think, would have a chance to go certainly in the first round,” Pelissero said, placing Simpson firmly in the NFL conversation alongside Oregon’s quarterback and projected No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza.

Pelissero emphasized that teams are in a dire situation with few options, which makes the market favorable for aggressive moves. For Simpson, the bet is that NFL evaluators will focus on how rapidly the game slows down for him and trust in tight windows. Although many in the league think his back injury is more to blame than his talent, the deep-ball worries haven’t gone away. In a thin class, betting on traits and upside might be enough to turn uncertainty into a first-round payoff.